Phil Agius
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It is finally the week of the 2023 NFL Draft. The first name will be called by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell in Kansas City, Missouri, on Thursday night, with local Chiefs fans no doubt delighted to have the final pick of the first round as a reminder that they won the Super Bowl. That pick is one earlier than it usually is — 31st compared to 32nd — as the Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick as a penalty for violating the league’s anti-tampering policy.
In all, 7 first-round picks are no longer in the hands of the team they were originally allocated to for their performances in the 2022 season — and that includes the first overall pick. The pick already had an interesting storyline, with Houston having been on track to get it until the Texans scored a late touchdown to beat the Colts 32-31 in Week 18. That dropped them down to second spot and handed the first pick to the Chicago Bears. The Bears won’t be picking first either, though, having traded it to the Carolina Panthers for a huge haul of picks as well as wide receiver DJ Moore.
In this article, we will be looking at the candidates to be the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Let’s start by looking at the latest odds.
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2023 NFL Draft odds to be the first overall pick
The first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is a near lock according to the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Alabama quarterback and 2021 Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young is the hot favorite at -2400 odds to be heading to Carolina on Thursday night, with Ohio State QB CJ Stroud and Florida wildcard Anthony Richardson seen as the only likely alternatives if all the talk of the Panthers favoring Young turns out to be smoke and mirrors.
That hasn’t always been the case. BetMGM Sportsbook had Young as its -120 favorite in its opening odds, with Stroud at +200 and top defensive end prospect Will Anderson a realistic option at +750. By March 6, Young was -190 with Stroud out to +400 and Richardson was the hot ticket at +500. That all changed when the Panthers traded for the top pick, though, with Young widely expected to be the reason they moved up. After that trade, Young was -2000, with Stroud available at +800 and Richardson back out to +2500 and the market has moved even further in Young’s favor since.
Here is the latest betting on the first pick from FanDuel Sportsbook:
Bryce Young -2400
CJ Stroud +1500
Anthony Richardson +2500
Will Levis +6000
Will Anderson +12000
2023 NFL Draft first pick prediction: Bryce Young (-2400)
Please note the above wording is prediction, not advised bet, as betting on -2400 shots is never recommended. The first overall pick can change late in the build-up — Baker Mayfield was a 20/1 chance a week or so before his name was called by the Browns in 2018, when Sam Darnold had been the expected pick, but other years, such as in 2021 when Trevor Lawrence was the clear choice for the Jaguars a long way out, there is less intrigue and this looks to be one of the years when, as many analysts have been saying: “the draft starts with the second pick”.
Young is not the perfect prospect, for the obvious reason that he stands only just over 5ft 10in tall. You might think the Panthers would be wary of taking a shorter QB after their experience with batted-ball specialist Mayfield last season. However, they are set to surround him with QB expertise from head coach Franck Reich, senior assistant Jim Caldwell and QB coach Josh McCown, which seems the smart way to go about things.
Young would resume the run of Heisman Trophy-winning QBs being taken first overall that featured Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow from 2018 to 2020, but was ended when 2021 winner, WR DeVonta Smith, went 10th to the Eagles last year.
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2023 NFL Draft first pick longshot: CJ Stroud (+1500)
It’s not often a second favorite can genuinely be called a longshot, but with +1500 odds that is what CJ Stroud has become. These odds might have seemed crazy a couple of months ago, when Stroud was the candidate who checked all the boxes for what a first pick looked like, standing around 5 inches taller than Young and having thrown for 81 TDs and only 12 interceptions in his last 2 seasons with the Buckeyes. Now there are reports he could even fall out of the top 5, with the QB-needy teams apparently preferring Will Levis of Kentucky, or bewitched by the physical prowess of Florida’s Richardson.
Richardson is definitely the one a GM could fall for as his potential is huge, but after trading so much to get the first pick, it’s hard to see the Panthers taking that much of a gamble. I would absolutely do that with, say, the fourth pick, but not after betting the house to move up to #1. Given the cost, it has to be for a supposed can’t-miss prospect, which can surely only be Young or Stroud.
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