Andrew Ortenberg
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Thanks to the lockout, the MLB offseason lasted a week or so longer than we would have liked, but that’s water under the bridge now. The 2022 MLB season is officially upon us, and we all can’t wait for Opening Day. Thankfully there’s still plenty of time to get your futures bets placed, and we’ve been cranking out content to get you primed. Be sure to keep an eye on our MLB news section for all the latest.
Today we’ll be taking a look at one of the best stories in every sport. The classic ‘worst to first’ scenario. It’s a common theme in every league, and was most recently and notably accomplished by the Cincinnati Bengals in the NFL. Cincy finished in last place in the AFC North in 2020 before winning the division this past year and making it all the way to the Super Bowl. Which last-place MLB team from last season has the best chance to pull off a similar feat? Let’s dive in:
2022 MLB ‘worst to first’ contenders
There are 6 divisions, meaning we’ve got 6 last-place teams to examine. The Orioles, Twins, Rangers, Nationals, Pirates and Diamondbacks. Last season, their performances ranged from 52 wins (Baltimore and Arizona) to 73 (Minnesota). Most of those teams were expected to be bad, but the Twins and Nationals were big disappointments.
Minnesota’s win total was 89.5 entering last season, while Washington’s was 84.5. Both were supposed to be above .500 teams. This year’s win totals will tell us a lot about who oddsmakers think has the best chance. Arizona is expected to win 13 more games than they did last year, but that’s still only 65.
The Rangers signed Corey Seager and a few other big names this offseason, so they’re expected to take a decent-sized leap as well. After winning 60 games last season, oddsmakers have them pegged at 71.5 this time. The Twins are also expected to bounce back, as their win total has once again been set above .500 at 81.5.
Washington seemed to wave the white flag last season when they traded away Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, showing they’re probably entering a bit of a rebuild. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Arizona are still very much in the midst of their own respective rebuilds. Which brings us into our best bet…
2022 MLB ‘worst to first’ best bet
Of these 6 teams, the only club with a realistic chance to go ‘worst to first’ in my opinion is the Twins. The Rangers adding Seager was nice but their pitching staff still has too many holes, and they’re playing in the extremely tough AL West that will feature very good Astros, Angels and Mariners teams.
The other 4 teams are barely even trying to win this season, they’re too busy stockpiling prospects for the future. You can get Minnesota at +500 to win the AL Central at FanDuel, and that price has some value. The Twins underachieved last season, but they started to play more to their potential toward the end. From August 1 onward they were an above .500 team.
The Central should also be one of the easiest divisions to win in 2022. Last year only the White Sox finished with a positive run differential. Chicago won 93 games last season, which was the 2nd-lowest total of any division winner. Minnesota made some big additions this offseason, most notably signing Carlos Correa, who was 5th in AL MVP voting last year.
They made a flurry of moves to bolster the rotation, trading for Sonny Gray from the Reds and also signing Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. They even traded for Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez. It’s a significantly improved team from the one that was already supposed to compete for an AL Central crown last year. At 5/1, I like their chances of going ‘worst to first’.
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