Ricky Dimon
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In the famous words of New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick: “We’re on to Cincinnati.”
This is the best time of year to be a tennis fan, with Wimbledon having just taken place, back-to-back 1000-point tournaments on North American hard courts underway and then the U.S. Open later this month. It’s a good time of year to be backing my picks, too, as I cashed Jannik Sinner at +1000 this past week in Toronto with a 2-unit play. Let’s keep the momentum going!
Here are the odds and my picks for this week’s festivities in Cincinnati.
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ATP Cincinnati odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic +170
Carlos Alcaraz +190
Daniil Medvedev +550
Jannik Sinner +1100
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1800
Casper Ruud +1800
Holger Rune +1800
Andrey Rublev +2200
Taylor Fritz +2800
Alexander Zverev +2800
Alex de Minaur +2800
Hubert Hurkacz +3500
Matteo Berrettini +3500
Frances Tiafoe +4500
3-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+550)
In Cincinnati I generally target players who didn’t go too far in Canada. After all, 1000-point events in consecutive weeks is a difficult stretch of tennis, especially for players who went deep the first week. Daniil Medvedev did not (at least not by his standards), as he lost to eventual runner-up Alex de Minaur in the Toronto quarterfinals. The world #3 is a former Cincinnati champion (2019), has reached the semis each of the past 2 seasons and has not lost prior to the quarters since 2018. Medvedev, who won the U.S. Open in 2021, absolutely loves this time of year. He may love it even more by the end of the week.
2-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+2200)
Andrey Rublev did not play in Washington, D.C. and lost right away in Toronto, so he has not won a match on hard courts this summer. In other words, the #7 seed will be extremely motivated to do well in Cincinnati and pick up some confidence in time for the U.S. Open. Rublev was the runner-up at this event in 2021; there is no reason why he can’t go all the way this time.
1-star value play: Frances Tiafoe (+4500)
Frances Tiafoe loves playing at home in the United States and loves a lively atmosphere. Cincinnati satisfies both requirements — maybe not to the extent of the U.S. Open (where Tiafoe upset Rafael Nadal en route to the 2022 semifinals), but it’s a huge tournament where he has home-court advantage. Two of his three ATP titles have come in the U.S., including one on hard courts at Delray Beach and one earlier this season on the red clay of Houston. At long odds, the world #10 has good value.
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WTA Cincinnati odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +220
Aryna Sabalenka +500
Elena Rybakina +600
Jessica Pegula +750
Coco Gauff +1600
Liudmila Samsonova +1800
Ons Jabeur +1800
Karolina Muchova +3100
Marketa Vondrousova +3100
Maria Sakkari +3100
Madison Keys +3400
Veronika Kudermetova +3400
Daria Kasatkina +4200
Petra Kvitova +4200
3-star value play: Aryna Sabalenka (+500)
Aryna Sabalenka lost in the third round in Montreal to eventual runner-up Liudmila Samsonova. That isn’t a terrible result given how well Samsonova played all week and it leaves Sabalenka well rested for Cincinnati. Fast conditions in Cincy are great for the world #2’s game, just as they are throughout the North American summer. She is a 2-time semifinalist at the U.S. Open (each of the last 2 years) and also at this tournament. She could be in line for her first Cincinnati title.
2-star value play: Coco Gauff (+1600)
Like Sabalenka, Coco Gauff lost early enough in Montreal and did so in a fashion that wasn’t at all disappointing. She dropped a tight 3-setter in the quarterfinals to Jessica Pegula, who went on to win the tournament. If Gauff had won Washington, D.C. and Montreal back-to-back, I would have avoided her in Cincinnati. However, winning 2 titles in 3 weeks is not too much to ask. The 19-year-old has a relatively favorable draw in a different half from Sabalenka and different quarter from world #1 Iga Swiatek.
1-star value play: Madison Keys (+3400)
Madison Keys is often a good play on the futures market because she is an all-or-nothing kind of player. A first-round loss is always possible, but so is a title. When Keys gets hot, she is one of the most dangerous players on tour. Recent results include a quarterfinal run at Wimbledon and a quarterfinal showing in Washington, D.C. In her last 5 trips to Cincinnati the 28-year-old American has a title, a semifinal appearance last year and another quarterfinal.
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