Andrew Ortenberg
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Week 9 of the NFL season gets underway here with a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game as the San Francisco 49ers host the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football.
Unfortunately it won’t be quite the epic showdown we were hoping for, as the 49ers will be significantly shorthanded without both George Kittle and Jimmy Garoppolo. Aaron Rodgers surely has had this game circled on his calendar for a while after San Francisco embarrassed him in the playoffs last year. With all the injuries to San Francisco oddsmakers have made Green Bay a large favorite, but Kyle Shanahan’s team never goes down without a fight.
A same game parlay with FanDuel or PointsBet offers bettors the chance for a huge payout, and enhances the excitement of this primetime clash. You can check out our full preview of the game, which features picks on the side and total, as well as our other picks for Week 9.
Packers first half -4.5 (-110)
Aaron Rodgers over 283.5 passing yards (-110)
Davante Adams over 82.5 receiving yards (-110)
Jerick McKinnon over 25.5 receiving yards (-110)
Under 48.5 Points (-110)
Parlay odds: +3306
A few of these picks are highly correlated, but by throwing in the under pick, the odds get a huge boost. It makes sense to add this type of play, as we don’t exactly need a shootout in order to cash these relatively modest prop totals that all have favorable matchups.
Packers first half -4.5 (-110)
As I mentioned above, the Packers have surely had this game in mind for a long time. It might be why they fell flat this past Sunday against the Vikings. The 49ers absolutely smoked the Packers the last time these two teams played each other as San Fran advanced to the Super Bowl. Green Bay is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder here, and I expect them to start hot and execute well in the first half as they’ll be locked in.
The 49ers on the other hand should start sluggish and be a bit demoralized out of the gate after the brutal week they’ve endured. They just lost their two most important players for pretty much the rest of the season, and they have to realize that at 4-4 they won’t be making another Super Bowl run out of a tough NFC West. Shanahan has only had a short week to game-plan for his new starting quarterback, and Nick Mullens looked lost the last time we saw him start a game against the Eagles.
Aaron Rodgers over 283.5 passing yards (-110)
Rodgers is the type of player who always performs better when he has a motivational edge, and Rodgers with revenge on his mind is a scary sight for any defense. When you throw in the fact that this 49ers defense is really banged up, and that I expect them to come out a bit flat, Rodgers should have a field day. Outside of one bad game against an elite Bucs defense he’s been playing at an MVP level, and in primetime on national television he should show out.
He has at least 283 yards in four of his past five games, so I think this total is a little conservative. Without Nick Bosa to get pressure Rodgers will be sitting pretty in the pocket, and he should be able to carve up a 49ers secondary that just gave up four passing touchdowns to Russell Wilson last week. He’ll get his revenge, and then some.
Aaron "no look" Rodgers?
Aaron no look Rodgers.
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) September 28, 2020
Davante Adams over 82.5 receiving yards (-110)
If Rodgers goes over 283 passing yards, then guess who almost certainly had a huge game? Adams. He’s not just the Packers’ number one receiver, he’s pretty much their only steady receiver. Green Bay’s secondary options are lacking, and Adams should see heavy targets here. San Francisco has struggled to slow down opposing teams’ number one receivers as they’ve been without top corner Richard Sherman, most recently giving up 161 yards and two touchdowns to D.K. Metcalf. Adams should have similar success.
Jerick McKinnon over 25.5 receiving yards (-110)
We get a lot better odds here by throwing in an over for a player on the other team, but I think this one actually correlates as well. If the Packers are having a good game and are up in the second half, then that means McKinnon is going to get a lot more run as the passing-downs back. He hasn’t been receiving too many carries but plays a ton in passing situations, and just this past week had 40 yards through the air as the 49ers trailed the Seahawks all game. Mullens is starting on a short week without most of his top receivers and tight end, so I expect him to lean heavily on the running backs in the passing game. Linebacker is by far the biggest weakness on this Packers defense, and I expect Shanahan to want to take advantage of that matchup with his ‘backs.
Under 48.5 Points (-110)
Just because we’re taking the over on a few props doesn’t mean this will be a barnburner, and I don’t think the 49ers are going to score much at all. They’ve been completely depleted on offense, and the issues go well beyond Garoppolo. Not only is Kittle out, but so are Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., etc. You get the idea. I think the 49ers are going to try to run the ball a ton, which will keep the clock running. Green Bay’s defense should respond after they got shredded on the ground by the Vikings last week.
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