Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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I’m looking to bounce back from a down Week 8 in the touchdown department, but I have a few spots I really love this week. The game totals are all over the place, as low as 37.5 in Giants vs Raiders and as high as 50.5 for the Dolphins vs Chiefs game in Germany on Sunday morning. As always we will chase the plus-odds TD scorers, but I may have to break my rule this week.
You can read all our NFL predictions for Week 9, but now let’s dive in to my anytime touchdown scorer picks.
Top Shelf
Bijan Robinson (ATL) +120
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Bijan Robinson found the end zone last week, notching his third TD of the season for the Falcons. I’m optimistic he will be finding the end zone a lot more with Taylor Heinicke under center. Heinicke isn’t a franchise QB, but has the ability to sustain long drives and push the ball downfield. That alone can open things up for Robinson. With Drake London being declared out this Sunday, we should see Robinson spread out wide more than he has in the last few weeks, which is good, considering 2 of his 3 touchdowns have been receptions.
Jonathan Taylor (IND) -120
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
And there it is, my rule is broken. I’m playing Jonathan Taylor this week at negative odds and the implied odds indicate this is a 54.5% probability. I still feel good about it considering he has returned as the starter for the Colts in the last two games and has seen double-digit carries. The Panthers are one of the better matchups he could have this week, as they are allowing 5.0 ypc and over 126 ypg on the ground to opposing RBs. Two years ago, these odds were -250, but after 4 games to get him back into game shape, I feel confident we will see the Jonathan Taylor we all remember. This is my favorite play of the week and his 2 TD line is +480.
Mid Shelf
Chris Olave (NO) +200
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Chris Olave has been targeted 9 times in the red zone (23% of his team’s 38 red -zone pass attempts) and has only 1 touchdown reception on the season. He has admitted that he’s in a slump, but outside of a bad drop, he still saw 9+ targets last week. The Bears are a great spot for him to get right and I think we will see him taking one to the house this week. I’m loving this at 2-1.
Check out my favorite NFL player props for Week 9
Bottom Shelf
Jaren Hall (MIN) +650
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Jaren Hall is a rookie QB out of BYU getting his first career start for the Vikings on Sunday. The 6ft 25-year-old has a playing style very similar to a young Russell Wilson and mobility is in his game. At BYU, Hall averaged 5 carries per game in 2021 and 4.7 carries per game in 2022. He has the ability to get to the corner and Atlanta’s secondary has been sneaky good this season, leading me to believe if he doesn’t seeing anything past his second read, he will pull down and take off. I love his rushing total this week, but as a TD scorer, we could do a lot worse at +650 odds.
Julian Hill (MIA) +1200
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is our swing-for-the-fences play of the week and it’s in the highest total. Luckily, it’s the first game of the weekend too so we can wake up and hopefully watch this one cash. Julian Hill is the backup tight end to Miami’s Durham Smythe, who was walking around with a boot all week. He did practice and is questionable for this game. Even with Smythe in the lineup, Hill saw 44% of the snaps last week. If Smythe is a late scratch, these are fantastic odds for Hill to steal one in the red zone. Tread lightly on this one, but it’s a fun sprinkle to start our day.
Check out our NFL Week 9 mega parlay (+1077 odds)
