With just four weeks left in the regular season, teams across the Premier Lacrosse League are getting ready to enter playoff mode. The Whipsnakes locked up a playoff spot last week, while the Chaos still have work to do to climb into the hunt for the postseason.
Star players from both those teams, along with a Rookie of the Year candidate, are featured in this week’s player props. Let’s get into our best prop bets for this weekend’s action.
Matt Moore (Archers) over 2.5 points (-115)
The return of Grant Ament means the ball is being spread out a little more. However, in Ament’s absence, Matt Moore emerged as a go to dodging threat, particularly as he frequently draws short stick matchups. The rookie is currently the league leader in unassisted goals with 9, and he’s shooting 42.9% in those situations. He’s an excellent dodger, but what makes him dangerous is his ability to create from anywhere on the field. Moore running downhill out of the box in the sub game is just as dangerous as Moore in a settled set from behind the net in an invert. In the last matchup with the Atlas, Moore finished with a hat trick on six shots. Overall he’s shooting just under 40% on the season.
On a midfield line with Tom Schreiber and Connor Fields, Moore will almost always have one of the weakest defenders on him. He’s attacked this well in multiple ways, the first as a dodger. Atlas have surrendered 35 goals from shots initiated by the dodge, the highest mark in the league, and teams shoot 29.2% out of those sets against the Atlas. The Archers are shooting 32.9% on shots initiated by the dodge, the highest mark in the league. Moore is at the center of that production. As an added benefit, Moore has looked more comfortable in a pick game with Schreiber. Against the Cannons last week, Moore showed the ability find space off a pick and roll with Schreiber and then attack off a secondary dodge for a goal.
The personnel Moore plays with is pass first, spin the ball, and attack an unsettled defense. Schreiber and Will Manny are both in the top-6 in the league in assist opportunities. Grant Ament had 4 assist opportunities in his first game back from injury, and he should only improve this weekend. Moore has tallied more than 2.5 points multiple times this season. Look for him to clear this number again this weekend.
Check out our expert picks for Archers vs Atlas!
Josh Byrne (Chaos) under 3.5 points (+100)
Since returning from the indoor season, Byrne has been a key piece of the left side of the Chaos offense. A capable dodger and shooter, he’s had four points in back to back games for the Chaos. Putting up a third in a row will be a tall task. Byrne has never had a 4+ point game against the Redwoods since the league launched in 2019. The Chaos as a team are just 3/25 from the high lefty wing, the worst mark in the league, and 4/21 from the low lefty wing, the second worst mark in the league. If they can get to the middle of the field, the Chaos shoot over 50%, which is the best in the league. The problem against the Redwoods will be getting there.
The Redwoods have surrendered a league low 45 shots from the middle of the field this yearSince they made their goalie change from Tim Troutner to Jack Kelly, the Redwoods are 1-1 with a one goal loss to Archers and a 1-goal win over Atlas. Kelly has yet to be under 50% save percentage as a starter. Also working against Byrne is that the scout on the Redwoods right now is to attack from the right side. Their defense has given up a league worst 12 goals from righty wing initiations, with teams shooting 44%. The Chaos offense is 13 of 32 on righty wing initiations, shooting 41%, the best in the league.
It’s a desperation game this weekend, as the Chaos need to start climbing up from the bottom of the standings to secure a playoff spot. With a likely matchup with Garrett Epple looming, and the data showing how much more favorable it will be for Chaos to attack with Dhane Smith, Challen Rogers, and Chase Fraser, the outcome for Byrne is likely not a career high in points against the Redwoods. He’s a superstar and he’ll be involved, but it’ll be the righties that carry the day for the Chaos.
Matt Rambo (Whipsnakes) under 3.5 points (-120)
So far this year, Matt Rambo has done what he always does: put together a solid, productive season. Rambo’s consistency as the lead option for the Whipsnakes is typically there. While it’s not been his best year statistically, Rambo has certainly had a solid campaign nonetheless. He’s in the top 10 in the league in points, while his shooting is a bit lower than expected. There are a few reasons to expect a quiet week from Rambo in Dallas.
On the year, Rambo’s turnover numbers are up. He already has 16 with four regular season weeks left to play, an unusual number for him. This week, he’ll likely be matched up with the Chrome’s Mike Manley, who is third in the league in forcing turnovers. Compounding that, Manley has gotten the better of Rambo in recent years. Last year, Rambo didn’t score a point against Chrome (he did leave that game injured). In their last meeting in 2019, Rambo again didn’t register a single point on five shots. This was the only game of the year he was held scoreless. Manley’s physicality and footwork is an excellent counter to what Rambo does well. As a dodger, Rambo uses his large frame to create leverage and drive to spots on the field where he can be dangerous. That’s exactly the type of player that Manley defends well.
On top of that, as a team the Whipsnakes have 14 goals on 77 shots combined from the low and high lefty wings, where Rambo will play. That puts them in the bottom of the league shooting from the left side. Finally, while the Whipsnakes usually have an edge facing off with Joe Nardella, this week should be different. Connor Farrell is having an excellent year for Chrome and historically, he’s won this matchup. Nardella was won just 33.96% of clamps against Farrell in their history. This year, Farrell is winning clamps 58.2% of the time, and winning the draw almost 82% of the time he wins the clamp. Farrell playing to the history against Nardella means limited possessions and opportunities for Rambo to get going. Between that and the matchup with Manley, Rambo has a quiet day.
Check out our full preview of Whipsnakes vs Chrome!
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