Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football season continues to deliver great games, upsets galore and excitement. Last weekend’s slate was arguably the best of the season, and we should have more great action in store for Week 8.
Last week resulted in a disappointing 0-3 card for me, but my best bets record is still 11-6-1 over the last 6 weeks. Let’s get back on track this week!
This week’s action kicks off on Wednesday and will go deep into Saturday night. While this week’s lines have been on the move since Sunday, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 8 of the college football season.
We’ve got NCAAF picks for all the big games in Week 8!
Purdue ML (+112) over Wisconsin
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Purdue hasn’t beaten Wisconsin in more than 10 years, but this is a rare instance in this series when the Boilermakers are in a good position to win. Purdue should probably be favored in this matchup. The Boilermakers have the better quarterback and far better offense of these teams. Purdue is 30th in the nation in offensive success rate, while ranking inside the top 30 in passing and rushing success rate. Aidan O’Connell will be going up against a Badgers defense that is 73rd in opponent EPA per pass, meaning he should feel comfortable throwing on Wisconsin. The Boilermakers have been strong on early downs and I expect them to stay ahead of the chains by throwing the ball instead of running against this stout Wisconsin front.
On the other hand, the Badgers offense is a serious concern. Graham Mertz is still an issue at the quarterback position and establishing the run could be challenging against a Purdue defense that ranks 19th in EPA per rush. Braelon Allen is terrific, but he doesn’t have any help at the moment in this offense. Purdue’s offense is experienced and consistent, while the Badgers struggle to move the ball through the air each week. If Wisconsin falls behind, Purdue could stack the box and force Mertz to try to beat them. I’ll gladly take the Boilermakers at this plus-money price.
Be sure to check out our full Purdue vs Wisconsin predictions
UCLA +6.5 (-110) vs Oregon
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
With both of these teams coming off a bye, this line seems mispriced to me. UCLA has been absolutely stellar on offense this season, as the Bruins are fresh off upset wins over Washington and Utah in which they put up over 40 points in each game. Per College Football Data, UCLA is 5th in the country in EPA margin, 6th in offensive success rate and 6th in net points per drive. In a vacuum, this indicates that the Bruins are slicing through opposing defenses and converting on their opportunities in the red zone. And Oregon’s defense shouldn’t offer much resistance, as the Ducks are 121st in opponent passing success rate. Seeing as UCLA was just able to dominate Utah’s defense, I don’t think we see much resistance from Oregon here.
On the other side, the Oregon offense has been just as potent, with the Ducks scoring 40+ points in each of their last 5 games. Bo Nix has been excellent at home, where he has limited his turnovers and crucial mistakes. However, most of those games have come against inferior competition compared to a team like UCLA. In a matchup between two great offenses, this game could easily come down to which team has the ball last. With that in mind, I think UCLA catching nearly a touchdown is borderline disrespectful considering what Dorian Thompson-Robinson and company have done of late.
Get our best CFB Parlays for this week’s college football action
Oklahoma State +6.5 (-110) vs Texas
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
This line has got a bit out of hand. It opened at under a field goal before quickly shooting up through the key number of 3. However, it then steamed even higher as news of Spencer Sanders’ lingering shoulder injury was released on Monday. Now sitting at nearly a touchdown, there is clear value on the home team in this matchup. Sanders is still expected to play on Saturday, and his injury didn’t hamper the Cowboys much on offense against TCU. Oklahoma State still put up 37 points on Saturday and Texas’ pass defense shouldn’t present much of a challenge.
The Longhorns’ strength on defense is stopping the run, but the Cowboys are 69th in the nation in rush rate over expected. Oklahoma State’s passing attack ranks 25th in EPA per play and holds a clear advantage over Texas’ 87rh ranked defense comparatively. Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns should put up points, but the Cowboys defense is still above average in success rate for a reason. This is a game that I project closer to a field goal, so I like the value we’re getting with the Cowboys. Barring any unforeseen change to Sanders’ injury status, Oklahoma State is one of my favorite bets this weekend.
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
