Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football season continues to deliver great games, upsets galore and excitement. Last weekend’s slate was a ton of fun and we should have more great action in store for Week 7.
Last week we remained consistent, as I went 1-1-1 on my best bets for Week 6 — improving to 11-3-1 over the last 5 weeks. Let’s keep the momentum going this week!
This week’s action kicks off on Wednesday and will go deep into Saturday night. While this week’s lines have been on the move since Sunday, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 7 of the college football season.
We’ve got NCAAF picks for all the big games in Week 7!
Penn State +7 (-110) over Michigan
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is a fascinating matchup in the Big Ten, one that pits a pair of efficient teams against each other. However, the betting market is still overrating Michigan despite some glaring holes in its resume. For one, the Wolverines’ excellent metrics are largely inflated by their extremely weak schedule thus far. Michigan feasted on Hawaii, UConn and Colorado State in the nonconference, before struggling with Maryland and Iowa. And while the Wolverines beat Indiana by 21 points last week, the game was far closer than the final score would indicate. Freshman quarterback J.J. McCarthy has yet to face a quality opponent in his first season as a starter, which could be a major issue against this Nittany Lions defensive unit.
Penn State’s defense can flat-out play, and the metrics back up the eye test. The Nittany Lions are 6th in the nation in net points per drive on defense, 8th in defensive EPA margin and top 10 in opponent EPA per rush. That will come into play against a Michigan offense that prides itself on running the football. The Wolverines’ gaudy offensive numbers are predicated on establishing the line of scrimmage. However, if Penn State can hold its own in the trenches, McCarthy will be forced to challenge an excellent Nittany Lions secondary. On the other side, Sean Clifford has played in plenty of Big Ten rivalry games and I expect him to play well enough to keep things close throughout. Back Penn State with confidence at +7 or better.
Be sure to check out our full Penn State vs Michigan predictions
Mississippi State -3.5 (-105) over Kentucky
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Mississippi State is absolutely rolling of late and this success is largely due to its offense. The Bulldogs’ offense is a top-25 unit while ranking #23 in the nation in EPA margin this season. Will Rogers has been brilliant at the controls of this Mike Leach offense, cutting through opposing defenses en route to 3 consecutive 40+ point outbursts. Mississippi State’s offense should continue to see success against a Kentucky team that has dropped 2 consecutive contests. However, it’s the Bulldogs’ defense that has been a pleasant surprise this season, as an often maligned unit on Leach teams has been quite solid. This defense is 31st in EPA per play and 24th in EPA per pass this season, which bodes well against an unproven Wildcats passing game.
Kentucky’s offense doesn’t have a true identity, and that’s been an issue this season as the Wildcats are 55th in EPA per game and outside the top 100 in EPA per rush. On the passing side of things, quotes from the coaching staff indicate that quarterback Will Levis will suit up, but it’s hard to see the Wildcats keeping this game within one score even if he does start under center. Knowing what we know about both offenses and this Mississippi State defense, I like the Bulldogs to win by a touchdown.
Be sure to check out our full Mississippi State vs Kentucky predictions
San Jose State -7 (-110) over Fresno State
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This might have been my favorite bet of the week at under a touchdown, but I still think it has value at the current number. Fresno State has consistently proven itself to be a Mountain West power, but that hasn’t been the case this year. After quarterback Jake Haener went down with an injury in a loss to USC, the Bulldogs haven’t been the same team. Fresno State’s last two contests resulted in losses to UConn and Boise State, while the Bulldogs only managed to score a combined 34 points in the process. This offense looks hapless without Haener and it’s unlikely that the star quarterback will suit up this weekend. That could spell trouble against a red-hot San Jose State team on the other side of the ball.
The Spartans are one of the more underrated teams in the Group of 5 this season, despite a string of good results. It all starts with how they are absolutely demolishing teams in the trenches. It’s on the defensive side of the ball where San Jose State is strongest, as the Spartans have allowed only 29 points over their last 3 games while outscoring opponents by 27 points on average. That momentum continued into last week’s contest, as San Jose State rolled through UNLV with a 33-point win. Now the Spartans will take on a Fresno State team that looks lost without Haener. Even on the road, this line should be closer to 10 points.
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