Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football season continues to deliver great games, upsets galore and excitement. Last weekend’s slate was a ton of fun and we should have more great action in store for Week 6.
Last week we had another successful day of handicapping, as I hit 2 of my 3 best bets for Week 5 — improving to 10-2 on my best bets over the last 4 weeks. Let’s keep the momentum going this week!
This week’s action kicks off on Friday and will go deep into Saturday night. While this week’s lines have been on the move since Sunday, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 6 of the college football season.
We’ve got NCAAF picks for all the big games in Week 6!
Money line parlay: TCU over Kansas & Mississippi State over Arkansas (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I immediately placed wagers on TCU and Mississippi State to cover against Kansas and Arkansas respectively when lines became available on Sunday. Unfortunately, the market has moved dramatically since then, driving both spreads over a touchdown. And while I am comfortable backing both teams at either price, it’s certainly not the best number from a value perspective. Instead of worrying about winning by a margin, I like parlaying the Horned Frogs on the money line with the Bulldogs. This gets you to about -110 odds at most sportsbooks, and I’d bet this down to -120.
For starters, the Horned Frogs are absolutely rolling of late and are taking on a Kansas team that is due for serious regression. The Jayhawks are the talk of college football this season, but their spotless ATS record won’t last forever. Last week, Kansas benefited from 3 missed field goals while barely totaling more than 200 yards of offense in a win over Iowa State. Things won’t get any easier against a TCU team that is 5th in the nation EPA per pass and going up against a Jayhawks defense that is 82nd in defending the pass. The Horned Frogs are also top 10 in the country in net points per drive, early downs EPA and defensive success rate. TCU is a freight train at the moment and I can’t see Kansas keeping up.
Mississippi State is just as hot, as the Bulldogs are coming off a dominant victory over Texas A&M. Will Rogers and Mike Leach’s offense should see more success against a porous Arkansas defense that is reeling of late. On the other side, it’s uncertain if Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson will even play in this one. Therefore, it’s hard to see the Razorbacks pulling off the upset on the road. Both TCU and Mississippi State hold considerable edges on Saturday, so I’m comfortable taking advantage of that with this parlay.
Be sure to check out our full TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas Jayhawks predictions
Washington State +13.5 (-110) over USC
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With Utah on deck, this is a pretty massive lookahead spot for USC. And while the likes of Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and Travis Dye are putting on a show offensively, the same can’t be said for the Trojans’ defense. Yes, their defense has been fortunate with turnover luck, but regression will come against better teams as conference play continues. In the meantime, the Trojans’ 57th-ranked defense won’t be able to get away with surrendering nearly 400 yards every week.
Washington State has already won outright as a double-digit underdog, and I expect a strong effort from the Cougars here. This offense has been humming of late and that didn’t change against California last week. The Cougars have scored 107 points over their last 3 contests, despite the fact that they have 6 turnovers over their last 2 games. Cameron Ward is playing well and the rest of his offense is still due for some positive turnover regression. Not only is this a brutal spot for USC, but the Washington State passing attack should be able to put up points against a below-average defense. I’d back the Cougars at this current number, and it wouldn’t hurt to sprinkle a bit on the money line.
Be sure to check out our full Washington State Cougars vs USC Trojans predictions
Kansas State -1 (-105) over Iowa State
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
While this line feels suspiciously short to me, it’s hard not to confidently back Kansas State here. Matt Campbell has an awful track record in games where the spread is 3 points or less and that didn’t change last week. Poor coaching decisions aside, the Wildcats are simply better than Iowa State in nearly all areas. Kansas State is excellent on the ground, ranking 23rd in EPA per rush thanks to Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez. Compare that to the Cyclones’ defense, which is 64th in EPA per rush, and you’ll find a clear advantage.
On offense, Iowa State has an extremely difficult time running the football, and that won’t change here. And while the Cyclones are 51st in passing success rate, this Kansas State secondary happens to be excellent. The Wildcats are 21st in defensive success rate against the pass and 25th in EPA per pass. This is a matchup where any strengths Iowa State has will be countered by a Kansas State team that does it at a higher level. Look for Martinez and the Wildcats to stay hot in conference play with an important victory on the road.
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