Andrew Wilsher
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The Pickswise handicappers continue to crush it this NFL season and there’s no reason to think that Week 5 will be any different. Our experts are currently 14-8 with their 3-star NFL best bets this season for +10.5 units of profit. On top of that, we have a 39-23-3 record against the spread for every game this season, which equates to +26.1 units of profit if you bet on every game at our recommended stakes! With such red-hot handicappers, we’ve asked 4 of our sharpest experts which of their NFL Week 5 picks is their best bet, and they’ve obliged. That’s 4 best bets, all in one place! Let’s dive in.
Andrew Ortenberg: Falcons -1.5 over Texans (-110)
We’ve got an interesting matchup here between the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans. I’ve bet the Texans a couple of times this year and it’s worked out nicely, but this week I’m fading them. Now is the perfect time to sell high on Houston and buy low on the Falcons. Everyone is selling Atlanta following the ugly loss to the Jags in London last week, and they’re at the absolute bottom of their market. Jacksonville spanked them in Week 4, but the Jags had a big advantage there since they play in London every year (and twice this year!), so I wouldn’t draw too many conclusions from that performance. Any game played overseas is naturally going to have higher variance and wackier outcomes.
Falcons QB Desmond Ridder has been a big disappointment this season, but that shouldn’t matter as much against a highly mediocre Texans rush defense that is allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Bijan Robinson should be able to get cooking again, which is all this Falcons offense needs. Atlanta has quietly been much improved this season, and even in the loss to Jacksonville they held Trevor Lawrence to just 207 yards and Travis Etienne to 55 yards on 20 carries. I’ve been impressed with Texans QB CJ Stroud, but Houston’s big win last week had more to do with Pittsburgh’s current incompetence than anything they did well. It’s understandable that people are excited about the Texans after back-to-back wins, but right before this mini win streak they got crushed by Anthony Richardson and the Colts in a game where they gave up 31 points.
Be sure to check out our full Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons predictions
Chris Farley: Steelers vs Ravens Under 38.5 (-110)
The most predictable thing about this game is that it won’t be very flamboyant. Many rivalries have changed in the NFL, but this one has not. The Steelers-Ravens series has been historically hard-hitting for the good part of two decades, perhaps made the most notorious when monsters like Ray Lewis and James Harrison occupied the field. This season should present more of the same, especially because the Steelers’ defense will be even more reliant on defensive success than usual. We know that Kenny Pickett is “attempting” to practice this week, according to reports. We also know that Pickett hasn’t exactly thrived in Matt Canada’s offense, as his mediocre 803 yards and 4 interceptions indicates. In any case, if Pickett cannot assume the starting role, Mitch Trubisky will take the reins. Trubisky hasn’t played in a real NFL game since mid-December last year, so I can’t imagine that the Pittsburgh offense will be suddenly fluid in the first 2 quarters. In fact, I expect the contrary.
The Ravens’ offense has been impressive, but it hasn’t shown enough to be given a vote of confidence just yet. Although they played well against Cleveland, the Browns were second-handed and playing catch-up all game. That would free any offense. The Ravens also stumbled against the Colts. No doubt they thrived in Week 2, but the Bengals have been underwhelming basically all season long. Baltimore’s offense is familiar to and has never overwhelmed the Steelers’ defense, and this is typically where elite players like TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith make huge plays. It won’t be easy for the Ravens to eclipse 20 points.
The last 5 games between these 2 old-school AFC North squads haven’t surpassed 40 points. I don’t think this one will get close. The team with the better offense has plenty of defense to stymie the other, while the black and yellow will need their defense to hold them afloat at this rate. I’m taking under 38.5.
Be sure to check out our full Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions
The Betting Queen: Eagles -4 over Rams (-110)
We have an interesting matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams in LA on Sunday. The Eagles are entering this game at 4-0 but they were only just able to stay undefeated against the Commanders last week, winning 34-31 in overtime. The Rams are 2-2, but are an impressive 4-0 against the spread this season. The Eagles have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL led by dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts and one of the best receiving duos in the league in AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Eagles are also one of the best rushing teams in the league, they have rushed for over 600 yards, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. This will be the Rams’ toughest test this season and they could struggle on defense. Hurts has a chance to pick apart the Rams secondary and have a big game through the air.
The Rams offense has generally been struggling to run the football this year, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, and they rely heavily on QB Matthew Stafford and the passing game to get the offense going. They have passed for the 2nd-most passing yards per game, but Stafford has thrown 5 interceptions already and could be forced into mistakes by the fierce Eagles pass-rush. I expect the Eagles offense to have a big day and prove too much for the Rams to stop. I’m looking for the Eagles to cover the spread with ease in LA.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs LA Rams predictions
John Martin: Packers -1 over Raiders (-110)
There’s just nothing here for me with the Raiders this season. They are dreadful. Josh McDaniels is the worst coach in the NFL and the Raiders rely almost exclusively on Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. Their defense — with yet another reach in the Top 5 of Tyree Wilson — is a shiv. They have lost 3 games in a row, so this is going the wrong way — and fast. Yes, they’re going to get Jimmy Garoppolo back. But we all saw him against the Steelers, right? Two of his 3 interceptions felt like they were intended for the defense. He is currently on pace to throw 26 picks this season. All that talk about how Jimmy G is such a winner? More like he played for the best offensive coaching staff in the NFL in Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel. The only quarterback in the NFL they can’t scheme to a starting role is apparently Trey Lance. The Raiders are flat out a sinking ship, kept from the bottom of the ocean floor only by 3 players in Adams, Jacobs and defensive end Maxx Crosby.
The Packers, meanwhile, are getting healthy with 10 days between games. Aaron Jones won’t be on a pitch count this week. Wideout Christian Watson returned last week and immediately caught a touchdown. Two-time Pro Bowl offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins returned to practice this week, as did stud defensive back Jaire Alexander. If these 2 suit up then it could be a really, really long night for the Raiders. This is a spot in which I expect Green Bay’s depth and massive coaching advantage to show through. This is playable for me up to -3, and at -1 I think we’re getting a massive discount.
Be sure to check out our full Green Bay Packers vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions
