Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 4 was one of the best weekends of college football in years, including some wild finishes, marquee games across the Power 5 and Group of 5 landscape alike, plus a couple of unexpected upsets that added to the excitement. Now with last weekend in the rearview mirror, it’s time to get into this Week 5 slate with my weekly best bets column.
I went 3-1 last week to bringing my record to 7-3 over the past 3 weeks, including another 3-star winner with Florida State, bringing me to 3-0 for the season on 3-star plays. Let’s keep that momentum going! With kickoff approaching, let’s take a look at my best bets for Week 5 of the college football season.
Memphis Tigers -2.5 over Boise State Broncos (-110)
I was going to pass on this game at 3.5, but I’m a lot more invested in backing Memphis now that it’s come back down to 2.5. This is a poor situational spot for the Broncos, who are coming off a road win in conference play against San Diego State and now have to travel for a weirdly scheduled nonconference game against Memphis before resuming Mountain West play with a very important stretch against San Jose State, Colorado State, Wyoming and Fresno State. Boise State also needs more consistent play from Taylen Green, who did show flashes of brilliance last week but has still struggled overall under new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan. The Broncos can’t throw the ball and that won’t get easier against a Memphis defense that is 7th nationally in passing success rate.
The lone advantage for Boise State lies in the running game, but the Broncos won’t be able to exploit that if they fall behind early. Furthermore, the biggest edge I see in this contest is a dynamic and experienced Memphis offense against a Boise State defense that has really struggled after replacing 7 starters from a season ago. This secondary is 118th in PFF coverage grade, the Broncos are 130th in opposing QBR allowed and near the bottom of the country in havoc and preventing explosive plays. That’s not ideal against Seth Henigan and a Memphis offense that loves to pass the ball early and often. San Diego State’s terrible offense just averaged 7 yards per play a week ago, so I don’t see Memphis struggling at all in a game it should be very motivated for. I make the number closer to a touchdown here, so let’s roll with the Tigers at home.
Read our full Boise State vs Memphis predictions
Tulane Green Wave -21 over UAB Blazers (-110)
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Be sure to check out our full UAB vs Tulane predictions
Maryland Terrapins -14 over Indiana Hoosiers (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Be sure to check out all of our NCAAF Week 5 picks for the biggest games on Saturday
