Caleb Wilfinger
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The 2022 college football season continues to deliver great games, upsets galore and excitement. Last weekend’s slate was excellent and we should have more great action in store for Week 4.
Last Saturday was also a very successful day of handicapping, as I hit all three of my best bets for Week 3 — improving to 6-0 on my best bets over the last 2 weeks. Let’s keep the momentum going this week!
This week’s action kicks off on Thursday and will go deep in Saturday night. While this week’s lines have been on the move since Sunday, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 4 of the college football season.
We’ve got NCAAF picks for all the big games in Week 4!
North Carolina -1.5 (-110) over Notre Dame
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s a little terrifying to back this poor North Carolina defense, but the Tar Heels aren’t exactly going up against an offensive juggernaut in this one. Notre Dame’s offense has been stuck in the mud for the entirety of September, as the Fighting Irish have consistently struggled to put points on the board. It’s not like they’ve faced excellent defenses, either; the results simply haven’t been there. Tyler Buchner started the season at quarterback, but he was replaced by Drew Pyne after an injury. Buchner failed to throw a touchdown pass in 2 games, while Pyne only threw for 123 yards against California a week ago. Notre Dame is well below the national average in success rate, EPA per play and explosive plays. This is the perfect matchup for a North Carolina defense that struggles mightily against the pass.
So how is North Carolina 3-0? Simple: the Tar Heels are winning with offense. This offense is firing on all cylinders, putting up an average of 550 yards and 51 points per game thus far. Drake Maye already has 11 touchdown passes and looks like one of the ACC’s best quarterbacks; most of that came without star wideout Josh Downs, too. Downs should be available to play on Saturday, which gives a boost to an already excellent passing attack. While this is easily the best defense that the Tar Heels have faced this season, they might not need 35-plus points to secure a victory. North Carolina is playing at home with the much better quarterback and skill position talent. Until the Irish figure things out, I have no problem fading them in this spot.
Minnesota -2.5 (-110) over Michigan State
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
These teams are trending in opposite directions. Michigan State is licking its wounds after a convincing defeat at the hands of Washington, while Minnesota is playing some of its best football since 2019 under PJ Fleck. While I typically would try to buy low on the Spartans in this spot, they have yet to impress me this season. Michigan State still has serious holes in its secondary, which was apparent against Washington — when the Spartans allowed 397 yards and nearly 10 yards per play against the pass. Despite losing by double-digits, MSU also benefited from 3 Washington turnovers in that game — so regression can be expected in that department. Furthermore, star wideout Jayden Reed is still nursing an injury that could keep him sidelined and quarterback Payton Thorne hasn’t looked calm or confident in the pocket as a result.
While Minnesota hasn’t faced the greatest of competition through 3 games, it’s hard not to be impressed at how it is just bludgeoning teams. Minnesota has outscored its opponents 149-17 to this point while totaling 300+ rushing yards in each contest. The Gophers have been scoring via methodical drives and explosive plays, to tune of one of the best EPA margins this season. With Michigan State’s key injuries and just having returned from a west-coast trip, Minnesota should already have an edge in this one. Look for Tanner Morgan, Mohamed Ibrahim and company to deliver a statement victory on the road.
UCLA -21 (-115) over Colorado
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Fading Colorado has been a winning proposition over the first 3 weeks of the season, and I don’t see much positive regression coming for this team. In fact, I actually think we’re getting a bit of value on UCLA in this spot. The Bruins are coming off an uninspiring performance against South Alabama last weekend in which they needed a last-second field goal to survive an upset bid at home. While they were lucky to win, the Bruins will now face a Colorado team that might be the worst Power 5 team in years.
The Buffaloes are being out-gained by their opponents by an average of over 200 yards per game, and it starts in the trenches. Colorado’s run defense has been an easy target for its opponents to exploit. That won’t change with UCLA’s offensive scheme, as head coach Chip Kelly likes to use quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson out of the pocket and Zach Charbonnet running downhill. The Bruins will play at a very quick tempo in hopes of tiring out the Buffaloes front, and I expect Colorado to wear down over the course of the game. On the other side, Colorado’s only hope on offense is its running game but UCLA is holding opponents to under 100 yards on the ground thus far in 2022. Look for the Bruins to dominate an overmatched opponent after their poor effort last week, and I like this number at 3 touchdowns or better.
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
