Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 2 promised to be a terrific slate of college football, and it certainly delivered. We had some wild finishes involving ranked teams, unlikely upsets across the Power 5 and Group of 5 and massive games with College Football Playoff implications that actually lived up to the hype. In all, it was a weekend that delivered on the promise of what should be a terrific college football season.
With Week 2 in the rearview mirror, it’s time to get into the Week 3 slate with my weekly best bets column. I just missed a 3-0 weekend last Saturday, as SMU +16.5 lost by the hook despite covering for nearly the entire game. Nonetheless, we still got back to winning ways by backing Texas and Liberty, so let’s keep that momentum going! This week’s slate isn’t the prettiest on paper, but we’ve still got a trio of matchups where I see value in the number. Let’s take a look at my best bets for Week 3 of the college football season.
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Washington Huskies -15 over Michigan State Spartans (-110)
Odds taken from game preview published on September 11. Washington -16 widely available at time of publishing.
This is a game that I’ve had circled going back to the offseason, when I actually got a Game of the Year line on Washington laying 10 points in this matchup. Obviously that line is long gone, but given that Washington has slightly exceeded my expectations to this point, I still see value in the Huskies at anything under 17 points against a Michigan State team that I’m certainly lower on than the market.
I predicted the Spartans would go well under their win total last month, and my opinion hasn’t changed in the slightest, even after a pair of mostly stress-free nonconference wins over very poor competition. This roster was absolutely gutted by the transfer portal, and the offense continues to be a massive question mark given how little experience this team has across the board. Now, the Spartans are not only dealing with pressing issues on the football field, but they’ll now have unforeseen off the field distractions to deal with, as former head coach Mel Tucker was suspended without pay after sexual harassment allegations against Tucker were brought to light last weekend. Assistants and coordinators have been tasked to fill new roles as a result, plus Mark D’Antonio will temporarily return to the program as associate head coach.
None of these diversions will be helpful for a team that needs plenty of time to prepare for the best passing offense in college football at the moment. Michigan State will be facing a Washington team that has looked absolutely dominant to start the campaign, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 99-29 in its first 8 quarters of football this season. Michael Penix Jr. looks every bit like a Heisman Trophy candidate, the wide receiving corps could be the best in the nation and Kalen DeBoer is a brilliant offensive mind who does nothing but win and cover as a head coach. Penix Jr. should feast against a Spartans secondary that he already shredded last season (and might’ve gotten even worse). Washington is averaging a whopping 9.2 yards per play this season, and I don’t see the Huskies slowing down in what should be a rout by at least 17-20 points in East Lansing.
Be sure to check out our full Washington vs Michigan State predictions
Alabama Crimson Tide -31.5 (-110) over USF Bulls
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Last week, I was eager to fade Alabama against a Texas team that I believed had just as much talent, depth and game-breakers on both sides of the ball. It was great to see the Longhorns score the outright victory, and not just because I cashed multiple tickets in the process. Alabama going down last weekend has now opened up the chance to back Nick Saban off a loss; a spot that his been very profitable historically. In fact, Alabama under Saban is around 57% against the spread coming off a loss, and keep in mind that most of those games were against SEC or other Power 5 competition. Those covering numbers would look even better if they came against Group of 5 competition, particularly a South Florida team that isn’t even expected to make a bowl game this season.
Statistically, this game is a mismatch. Even including their poor offensive numbers against Texas, the Crimson Tide are still top 30 in rushing success rate and 7th in the nation in 3rd down offense per CFB Graphs. Jalen Milroe has struggled in the passing game, but he should see success against a South Florida defense that is 104th in passing success rate and 91 in net points per drive. The Crimson Tide have rolled over Group of 5 competition of late, outscoring G5 opponents by an average score of 54-6 since the 2021 season, so there’s no reason to think that trend slows down here. I have Alabama favored by nearly 5 touchdowns in this spot, so I’d be comfortable with playing this number up to -34.
Be sure to check out our full Alabama vs USF predictions
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Miami OH Redhawks +14.5 vs Cincinnati Bearcats (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
From a situational perspective, this is by far the best spot of the week, and I immediately pounced on Miami (OH) at over 2 touchdowns. Cincinnati was not a team that I was all that high on coming into the season, but the Bearcats surprised me a bit in their victory at Pittsburgh a week ago. However, after digging into that game a bit, it became clear that this was mostly a case of Pittsburgh playing down to its competition as a favorite, which has been a common theme under Pat Narduzzi. Bearcats quarterback Emory Jones still hasn’t impressed me (even in his 6th season) and the Cincinnati passing attack is the weakest part of its offense by far, which bodes well for a RedHawks secondary that was shredded by Tyler Van Dyke (Miami FL) in Week 1.
I expect 5th-year senior quarterback Brett Gabbert to lead the way as part of a RedHawks offense that ranks 23rd in Early Downs EPA and 29th in EPA per pass. It helps that transfer wide receiver Gage Larvadain has 16 catches and 3 touchdowns through 2 games this season, and he should be a nightmare for this Bearcats defense that experienced a ton of offseason turnover. But above all, this is a massive letdown, look-ahead and sandwich spot all rolled into one for Cincinnati. The Bearcats just knocked off Pittsburgh on the road as a heavy underdog, and they’ll make their Big 12 home debut against Oklahoma next Saturday Hosting a MAC squad in the interim can’t be too exciting for these players, so don’t be surprised if Miami keeps things close until the final whistle.
Be sure to check out our full NCAAF Week 3 picks
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