Caleb Wilfinger
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After a wild Week 1 slate, what will college football do for an encore this week? Last weekend’s games served as a terrific reminder of what we’ve been missing, and we should have more great games in store for Week 2.
With the NFL taking center state on Thursday, this week’s action kicks off on Friday and will go deep in Saturday night. While this week’s lines have been on the move since Sunday, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 2 of the college football season.
We’ve got NCAAF picks for all the big games in Week 2!
Air Force -17 (-110) over Colorado
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
While this line opened at 14, I still think it has a ton of value at the current number. This one of the biggest mismatches on the Week 2 slate in terms of one team’s strength versus their opponents weakness. Air Force rolled through Northern Iowa to open its season, while Colorado was manhandled by TCU in a 25-point loss. But it’s how the Buffaloes lost that should concern them for this contest. Not only was their offense extremely poor, but their defense was absolutely decimated by the TCU ground game, surrendering 9.17 yards per play and 275 yards on the ground. For the game, the Horned Frogs held a 60% success rate when running the football.
Enter Air Force, an extremely efficient offense that racked up 594 yards on the ground in Week 1 for a whopping 9.90 yards per rush. The Falcons also held a success rate of better than 50% on passing downs while averaging over 18 yards per dropback. There’s even room for some positive regression, as Air Force committed 3 turnovers a week ago. TCU wore out Colorado on the ground in the second half last week, and I expect the Falcons to do the same. I would feel comfortable betting this up to -19.
Be sure to check out our full Colorado vs Air Force predictions
BYU -3 (-110) over Baylor
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Given BYU’s dominant win over South Florida and the Cougars’ generally excellent ATS record at home, it’s not surprising to see this line move to BYU -3. But as long as the number stays under 4, I think it still offers good value. Baylor’s strength lies with its run defense and that didn’t change in Week 1. The Bears held Albany to 3.4 yards per carry as part of a 69-10 bludgeoning. However, that interior defense will be tested mightily against the Cougars outstanding rushing attack. BYU averaged 8.7 yards per carry against South Florida while putting up 313 rushing yards for the game. Jaren Hall is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses and the offensive line in front of him is as solid as ever.
Former Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon was pressured constantly by the BYU defensive front and the same should happen to Blake Shapen. In his time as the Baylor starter, Shapen hasn’t played in an environment like Provo, Utah. With their 58% stuff rate a week ago, the Cougars should make it extremely hard for Baylor to establish its ground game. This means that Shapen will likely be asked to make plays in big spots — which I don’t see happening consistently. Back the better team at home in this one.
Be sure to check out our full Baylor vs BYU predictions
UTSA -2.5 (-110) over Army
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
To close out my best bets for this week’s slate, I’m looking to back UTSA against Army at under a field goal. The Roadrunners fell to Houston in an instant classic in Week 1, but the box score tells you that they probably deserved to win that game. UTSA averaged nearly 2 yards per play more than Houston, including a 45% success rate on offense. If not for an interception off a deflection in their own territory, the Roadrunners probably win this game by 7-10 points. Instead, they will be looking to bounce back against an Army defense that struggled mightily against Coastal Carolina.
Much like the Grayson McCall and the Chanticleers, Frank Harris should see success against the Black Knights. Harris put up nearly 400 total yards of offense against a stout Houston defense, and he should face no such resistance this week. On the other side, the Roadrunners run defense was surprisingly solid — especially against the run. In fact, most of Houston’s longest rushes came on quarterback scrambles. As Army typically runs the ball 75% of the time, this greatly improved UTSA front will be put to the test. However, even if Army puts up points the Roadrunners’ offense is more than capable of scoring 30+ points to secure a road victory.
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
