Andrew Wilsher
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The end of the 2023 NFL season is in sight as we head into Week 14, and games are beginning to mean more and more. We have a couple of mega matchups on the docket for Sunday with the Bills looking to keep their postseason hopes alive against the Chiefs, while the Eagles take on the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football in a battle for NFC East supremacy. We have a best bet from one of our experts for that matchup, and right here you can find out all 3 of our NFL best bets for Sunday’s action.
Our NFL handicappers have been on fire this season, boasting a 41-28 record with their 3-star best bets, which is good for +22.77 units of profit! You can read our NFL picks for every single game this week, but for now, let’s dive into our Week 14 best bets.
Andrew Ortenberg: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Over 39.5 (-110)
The play I like in this game is the over, because I think both of these defenses are being overrated by the market. Tampa Bay’s pass defense has fallen off hard — to the point that its secondary is one of the worst in the league. Todd Bowles’ unit is allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 26th in the NFL. The Bucs are still solid against the run, so I think Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith will open things up and pass a bit more than usual.
On the other side, Atlanta’s defensive numbers the last 2 weeks look great — but only because the Falcons were facing Derek Carr/Jameis Winston and Tim Boyle. The Jets had guys running open all game against the Falcons last week; Boyle just couldn’t hit them. In the previous 3 weeks against the Cardinals, Vikings and Titans, Atlanta gave up 25+ points in 3 straight. And that wasn’t exactly a murderer’s row of opposing offenses. If Kyler Murray in his first game back from an ACL tear, Josh Dobbs and Will Levis can all carve them up in consecutive weeks then I don’t see any reason to believe Baker Mayfield won’t also be able to do some damage with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Be sure to check out our full Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons predictions
Chris Farley: Chicago Bears +3.5 over Detroit Lions (-110)
We saw some interesting line movement as soon as the spread on this game came out. Chicago, although clearly not as talented a program as Detroit, is a mere 3.5-point underdog against its divisional rival. Detroit comfortably sits in 1st place in the NFC North, 3 games in front of the Vikings and a massive 5-game-gap in front of its opponent this Sunday. And maybe that’s part of the problem in this case. Opening odds and early line movement can give away market signals on which side is the “smarter” choice. Watching the market and firing bets solely by doing so is by no means a fail-safe approach — no method is, although in this case it speaks to something deeper.
The Bears could easily be entering this contest on a 3-game winning streak. Instead they have won 2 of their last 3 — still good! It was their first game against the Lions that got the asterisk. Chicago proved they could hang with Detroit, matching the Lions in total yards (334 to 338) and at one point leading 26-14 in the fourth quarter. Jared Goff had one of his worst games of the season, throwing 3 interceptions to a mistake-prone afternoon for the home team Lions. The Bears also ran for 183 yards.
I love Dan Campbell and the Lions; who doesn’t? But that doesn’t mean they are perfect. The Lions’ defense can be a problem. They are talented in every position group, but the reality is they are letting opposing offenses score way too many points. In their last 4 games, their opponents have averaged 30.25 points per game. Meanwhile, the Chicago defense looks world’s better from its early-season form — holding 5 of the last 7 opposing offenses to fewer than 20 points. The Bears have a familiar comfort with the Lions, a matchup reminiscent of the Texans-Jaguars or Commanders-Eagles. Chicago may not be the better team, but it just tends to play better against Detroit. This is a sneaky, sleepy spot for the Lions coming off a win, while Chicago hopes to build more momentum leading into next season. The Bears are also coming off a bye week.
Be sure to check out our full Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears predictions
John Martin: Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 over Dallas Cowboys (-115)
It’s been a brutal stretch for Philly. In consecutive weeks, they’ve had to face: Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Brock Purdy and now Dak Prescott again. If there’s been a worse stretch than that for defenses against quarterbacks in consecutive weeks, you’ll have to show me. It feels like the schedule finally caught up to the Eagles last week in a game against the 49ers that felt, subjectively, like a scheduled loss. The revenge angle clearly carried the 49ers against a Philadelphia defense that had been on the field for 90 snaps the week prior against the Bills – and it showed. Going into that game, I had the Eagles at the top of my power ratings and although they’ve come down a smidge, I still have them higher than Dallas here.
The Eagles are quite possibly getting back tight end and safety valve Dallas Goedert, whose absence has been masked by wins but is clearly felt by the Philadelphia offense. He’ll give Jalen Hurts a much-needed option in the short and intermediate that he just hasn’t had the last few weeks. The Cowboys have looked like world-beaters recently, but isn’t that how they always look against the dregs of the NFL? They’ve beaten up on teams like the Commanders, Panthers and Giants. Geno Smith nearly led the Seahawks to a massive upset on Thursday night last week in Dallas. Perhaps this is the game when Dak Prescott stamps his MVP campaign, but I don’t see it – at least, not past a field goal. We’ll take Philadelphia to bounce back after a tough home loss.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys predictions
