Caleb Wilfinger
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With the 5th edition of the College Football Playoff rankings released on Tuesday, the 2022 season is nearing a close. Last weekend’s slate was a wild way to end the regular season, and we should have more great action in store for Championship Week.
I bounced back with a 3-0 card on my Week 13 best bets, which brought my best bets record to 22-14-1 over the last 12 weeks. Let’s keep the momentum going!
This week’s college football action kicks off on Friday and will go deep into Saturday night. While this week’s lines have been on the move since Sunday, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Championship Week.
We’ve got NCAAF picks for all the big games in Week 14!
College Football Big 12 Championship Game: Kansas State Wildcats ML over TCU Horned Frogs (+120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
The College Football Playoff picture could look a lot different if Kansas State had a healthy quarterback for the duration of its first matchup with TCU. The Wildcats were absolutely dominating the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth until quarterback Will Howard was sidelined with an injury in the 3rd quarter. Once they were forced to turn to their unproven 3rd-string quarterback for a couple of drives, all momentum was squandered and TCU completed a wild comeback victory. However, I expect things to be different this time around.
This Kansas State team has been absolutely rolling of late, including blowout victories over the likes of Baylor and Kansas most recently. Howard has grabbed the reigns from Adrian Martinez at quarterback and the offense hasn’t looked back, ranking 27th in success rate, 23rd in EPA per pass and 23rd net points per drive over the last 5 weeks. From Deuce Vaughn in the backfield, to their deep wide receiver and tight end rooms, the Wildcats should give an awful Horned Frogs secondary fits. More importantly, Kansas State’s strength is its defense, which ranks 31st in EPA per pass and 15th in EPA per play per College Football Data. As long as Max Duggan doesn’t have his best game of the season, I like the Wildcats’ chances of winning this rematch.
College Football Mountain West Championship Game: Fresno State Bulldogs +4 over Boise State Broncos (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
Both of these teams have improved mightily as the season’s gone on. In the case of Boise State, the Broncos found an identity, while Fresno State got its superstar quarterback Jake Haener back from injury and greatly improved as a result. With that in mind, I can’t understand how this line is over a field goal. The Fresno State offense is elite with Haener in the fold, ranking top 20 in passing success rate and net points per drive. And while Boise State’s defensive metrics are elite, the Broncos have faced nothing but below-average quarterbacks all season long. The one time Boise State faced a solid QB was Jaren Hall, and the Broncos fell to BYU as 8-point favorites.
On the other side, the Bulldogs’ defense is surprisingly competent, ranking 35th in success rate and top 40 in net points per drive and early downs EPA. They’ll be facing a Boise State offense that has looked better of late, but still ranks 76th in rushing success rate and 79th in EPA per pass. Prior to the season, I gave out Fresno State at +300 to win the Mountain West and I still think the Bulldogs are slightly undervalued here against a bigger Group of 5 “brand” in Boise State. Look for Haener and company to keep this one close throughout, and don’t be surprised if we see an outright upset.
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
