Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got a treat this Monday with not one but two NFL games. In the first half of this doubleheader, the Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Washington Football Team. Pittsburgh is looking to keep their undefeated season alive, while Washington is hoping to build off the back to back victories they’ve picked up and avoid losing ground in the race for the NFC East.
What better way to make an already exciting game even more thrilling than with a same game parlay? Let’s take a look at the best such option for this matchup, with a payout north of 40/1, and be sure to check out our full preview of the game for picks on the side and total.
Washington -6.5 alternate spread (+500)
Alex Smith over 220.5 passing yards (-110)
Logan Thomas anytime touchdown scorer (+420)
Parlay odds: +4420
The value of same-game parlays, of course, is that all of their components can be correlated if you so choose. I think all three of these are correlated, and I certainly see this situation playing out more often than once in every 45 tries.
Washington -6.5 alternate spread (+500)
I think everyone is underestimating Washington here. For starters, this is a horrendous spot for the Steelers. Pittsburgh had a crazy past week, as their game originally schedule for Thanksgiving didn’t end up getting played until this past Wednesday, a full six days later. There was a ton of drama all week, and after they let all their anger out against the Ravens I don’t think they’ll be able to get up for this game.
The Steelers are a team that often plays down to the level of their competition anyway, and I think they get caught sleeping here. They will also be without star pass-rusher Bud Dupree for this one after he tore his ACL against Baltimore, and his absence will be demoralizing for the defense. Washington is a lot better than most people realize, and their defense has only given up 25 total points in their last two games. There’s a very good chance Pittsburgh picks up its first loss of the season here.
Alex Smith over 220.5 passing yards (-110)
If Washington is winning this game by at least a touchdown, then Smith almost certainly had a good day. Against this stout Pittsburgh defensive front I don’t expect Washington’s ground game to have much success, and they’ll be leaning on the pass. Obviously without Dupree in the lineup, Smith’s life will be a lot easier. Smith didn’t have to do much last week, but that’s because Washington’s defense dominated and they won by 25.
In the two games he’s had more than 26 pass attempts, he went over 325 yards both times. The back-half of Pittsburgh’s defense has quietly been exploitable, and they give up some explosive plays. I expect Smith to connect on a deep ball or two to Terry McLaurin, and his group of skill position guys aren’t nearly as bad as you might think.
Logan Thomas anytime touchdown scorer (+420)
If Washington wins by a touchdown and Smith had a good game, then Thomas very likely did too. The converted tight end has been emerging in Scott Turner’s offense, and it’s clear they’re going to continue to feature him more moving forward. Thomas has scored a touchdown in three of his last six games, so getting +420 on this line is an absolute steal. He’s always going to be a redzone target, and recently he’s taken some snaps as a wildcat quarterback, so that could help him find the endzone in a short-yardage situation as well.
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