Caleb Wilfinger
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With the 4th edition of the College Football Playoff rankings released on Tuesday, the 2022 season is approaching the home stretch. Last weekend’s slate was another wild one, and we should have more great action in store for Week 13.
It was a tough Week 12 card, which brought my best bets record to 19-14-1 over the last 11 weeks. Let’s get back on track this week!
This week’s college football action kicked off on Tuesday and will go deep into Saturday night. While this week’s lines have been on the move since Sunday, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 13 of the college football season.
We’ve got NCAAF picks for all the big games in Week 13!
Oregon State Beavers +3.5 (-110) vs Oregon Ducks
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
It took a lot for Oregon to get past Utah last Saturday. The Ducks offense struggled to move the ball consistently with a hobbled Bo Nix at quarterback, even after getting a number of turnovers from Utah to set them up with short fields. And speaking of turnovers, it also took probably the worst game Cam Rising has played in a Utah uniform for the Ducks to squeak by a Utes team that should have won the game by at least 7 points if Rising had put forth a decent effort. Having said that, don’t expect a win to come easy in Corvallis this week. Yes, Oregon State has flown under the radar this season. However, the betting market is clearly showing the Beavers respect for a reason.
It’s a great situational spot for the Beavers as they get to face their in-state rivals at home, where Oregon State holds an unblemished ATS record this season. In fact, the Beavers’ only home loss this season was a 3-point defeat to USC, a game in which Oregon State led until the final minute. This offense is humming, having scored an average of 31 points over their last 6 contests, including 3 blowout wins at home. While Oregon State has typically been a run-first attack in recent years, the Beavers are actually 31st in the nation in EPA per pass, which bodes well against a Ducks defense that is well outside the top 100 in passing success rate and opponent EPA per pass. In a home game against a hated foe, the Beavers should keep this one close throughout.
Be sure to check out our full Oregon vs Oregon State predictions
Tulane Green Wave ML (+115) over Cincinnati Bearcats
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
The winner of this one will end up in the AAC title game, making this the game of the year for both teams. Tulane has consistently been undervalued all season and we’re seeing the Green Wave catching points against an overrated conference foe once again. Tulane’s only defeat in AAC play to this point was a 1-score loss to UCF in a game when the turnover luck was decidedly in the Knights’ favor. Regardless, I’ll gladly accept this generous money line price and continue to fade a Cincinnati team that isn’t as good as the respect its getting here.
The Bearcats offense has been extremely middling this season, which presents challenges against a Tulane defense that is top-20 in opponent EPA per rush. The Green Wave should not have much trouble bottling up a Cincinnati run game that is outside the top 100 in success rate. And if the Bearcats struggle to get consistent success on the ground, they will likely need to rely on a hobbled Ben Bryant or backup Evan Prater to make big-time throws against a quality defense. That’s a tall task, especially in what is the biggest game of the season for both teams. Even on the road, I’ll take the better quarterback in Michael Pratt and the better defense in this Tulane unit to take care of business.
Be sure to check out our full Tulane vs Cincinnati predictions
Missouri Tigers +3.5 (-110) vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
I happily backed Arkansas a week ago, in what was an ideal spot for the Razorbacks against an Ole Miss team that was still thinking about its loss to Alabama. Fast forward to this week, and we can use a similar principle to fade Arkansas on Friday. The Razorbacks are hitting the road on a short week following a resounding victory over the Rebels to become bowl-eligible. Not only that, Missouri played New Mexico State last week, which essentially gave the Tigers 2 full weeks to prepare for KJ Jefferson and the Arkansas offense.
The strength of this Tigers’ team is their defense, as Missouri ranks 19th in success rate and 21st in EPA per pass. And while Missouri’s offense has struggled to move the ball consistently, the Tigers should get a reprieve this week by going up against a Razorbacks defense that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per rush and EPA margin. In a game where I expect Missouri to lean on its rushing attack and rely on its excellent defense to keep things close at home, the Tigers are certainly live to win this one outright. After all, Missouri has won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this rivalry matchup and the Tigers are playing for bowl eligibility in front of their home fans. With that in mind, I’ll gladly take the points in what should be a tight game.
Check out our best CFB Parlays for this week’s college football action
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
