Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 12 was another terrific week of college football, with compelling games and exciting finishes throughout. We had another solid 2-1 showing in the column last week — bringing us to 21-17 (55.3%) since Week 2. I’ve said all season that regression was to be expected after we cashed at an unsustainable 63% rate a year ago, but we’re on a 7-4 run in recent weeks so let’s keep the momentum going!
Rivalry Week is here and we have a compelling slate ahead of us, including massive games in the AAC, Pac-12, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. With Friday rapidly approaching, here is a look at my best bets for Week 13 of the college football season. And remember, you can check out all of our CFB predictions for the Week 13 games.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Michigan Wolverines First Half Under 23.5 (-115)
Odds available at BetRivers Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to under 23 (-110).
There are so many storylines in this year’s edition of The Game that I hardly know where to start. And while I lean toward backing Ohio State with the points, I’ll be focusing on the total for my best bet. It’s not lost on me that Jim Harbaugh’s noticeable absence from the sidelines might have really affected JJ McCarthy under center. The Wolverines offense has been extremely conservative under acting head coach Sherrone Moore, a product of an offensive line that is much worse than it has been in previous years. It also likely impacted the effectiveness and confidence of Michigan’s quarterback, as McCarthy is just 19-of-31 passing with 0 touchdowns and an interception, to go along with 4 turnover-worthy throws over the last 2 weeks. Now, in steps an Ohio State defense under DC Jim Knowles that should be able to contain a Michigan offense that has a serious explosiveness problem, particularly in the passing game.
Sticking to a conservative game script was already the hallmark of Harbaugh and Ryan Day teams in bigger games, and I expect that characteristic to be all the more exaggerated in Saturday’s matchup where the winner all but secures a berth in the College Football Playoff. These are also two of the best defenses in the nation, which certainly doesn’t hurt an under as well. Michigan’s defense is 2nd in EPA per play and 10th in Early Downs EPA while the Buckeyes rank inside the top 20 in EPA per pass, EPA per play and Early Downs EPA (CFB-Graphs). Both offenses have been extremely efficient against bad teams but these coaching staffs tend to tighten up and play cautiously against similar talent level. I’m expecting a careful and controlled game script in the first half, so let’s avoid a second-half explosion and stick to a first-half wager on the under.
Be sure to check out our full Ohio State vs Michigan predictions
UTSA Roadrunners +4 vs Tulane Green Wave (-110)
Playable to UTSA +3.
I’ve been backing UTSA every week since Frank Harris returned from injury, and that won’t stop in this pivotal AAC game on Friday. The veteran quarterback has led UTSA to 7 consecutive victories in conference play, setting up this game against Tulane as a de facto AAC semifinal, with the winner advancing to the conference title game next week. The Roadrunners played a brutal nonconference schedule (some of which came without Harris), which likely devalued this team’s power rating and metrics. Once conference play came around, UTSA’s season-long metrics have improved drastically, particularly on defense (now 28th in EPA per pass, 45th in EPA per play). Those improvements will be key against Michael Pratt and Tulane’s top 20 passing attack, as the Green Wave struggle to run the football with any sort of consistency.
While Tulane is 7-0 in the AAC, the Green Wave have covered the spread in only 2 of those victories while defeating North Texas, Rice, Tulsa and East Carolina by a combined margin of 14 points. It goes without saying that this is a major step up in class for a team that hasn’t looked quite right for quite a while. On the other side of the ball, the Tulane defense ranks 92nd in EPA per pass, which doesn’t bode well against Harris and a passing game that has exploded since the start of AAC play. The Roadrunners have scored 287 points over their 7 AAC games (an average of 41 points per game), and I’d expect another strong showing from a veteran team that is familiar with playing in high-stakes games in November. I’ve got UTSA winning outright, so let’s grab the points with the Roadrunners in New Orleans. Meep Meep!
Be sure to check out all of our NCAAF Week 13 picks for the biggest games this weekend
Oregon State Beavers +14 vs Oregon Ducks (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +13.
I’m targeting the Civil War game on Friday for my third pick this week with the Oregon State Beavers catching 2 touchdowns in Autzen Stadium against the Oregon Ducks. While Oregon State’s upset bid came up just short in Corvallis against Washington, this is still a team that was a few plays away from winning that game, in addition to a trio of turnovers and a safety on a failed punt snap. A win in that game would’ve brought this line down closer to the lookahead line of 11.5-12 points, which is where I believe it should be. And while the Ducks are undoubtedly a top-5 team in the country at this point, Oregon didn’t win by more than 2 touchdowns against Washington State, USC or Texas Tech, all teams that I’d rank below Oregon State.
The biggest positive takeaway for Oregon State is that they held Michael Penix Jr. to just 13-of-28 passing for only 162 yards. This is a top-30 secondary in the country that really made things hard on Penix, and I expect them to replicate that effort against Bo Nix and the elite short passing game of Oregon. I’m expecting head coach Jonathan Smith to enter this game with a terrific script that will heavily feature the Beavers’ elite rushing attack. Look for Oregon State to focus on chewing up plenty of clock on offense, which will shorten the game and make Oregon’s execution on the other end that much more important. Ultimately, I can’t get there with this number in a hostile rivalry game, so let’s back the Beavers for a second consecutive week on Friday.
Read our full Oregon State vs Oregon predictions
Auburn Tigers +14.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +14.
Unlike the previous games in the column this week, I don’t have much in the metrics or advanced stats department to justify backing Auburn against an Alabama team that is clearly superior in nearly every aspect. However, this is simply too good of a buy-low spot to pass up taking the Tigers as over 2 touchdown underdogs at home. Yes, the Tigers got embarrassed last week in a loss to New Mexico State as nearly 4-touchdown favorites. However, that was clearly an instance of the entire team and coaching staff looking ahead to the Iron Bowl this week, a game that still has tremendous meaning to the program, regardless of if Auburn is in contention in the SEC West or not.
More than any stat I could give you, this is a simple case of “I’ve seen this movie before”. In fact, I’m not sure if there’s a more ridiculous home-and-home split in any rivalry across the country. Regardless of how good both teams are, this Alabama team under Nick Saban always struggles in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Weird things tend to generally happen at that stadium in this rivalry, and look no further than the last 10 meetings in this series. Alabama has covered the spread just twice at Jordan-Hare over the last 9 meetings, losing 5 of those contests outright, including multiple losses when favored by more than a touchdown. The Crimson Tide were just 21-point favorites in this spot two years ago and had to escape with a 2-point victory in multiple overtimes. In a game that typically defies all logic, I’ll gladly grab this number with the home underdog.
Read our full Alabama vs Auburn predictions
