Andrew Ortenberg
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By the time the games kickoff, NFL lines often look considerably different from where they opened. Sportsbooks frequently adjust lines throughout the week both to balance the action, and to adjust to sharp money coming in from respected bettors. Today, we’ll be taking a look at a few of the more significant Week 12 NFL line movements from the games and what they mean.
NYG @ PHI
The total on this game has seen some movement, opening at 46 and shooting out to 48.5. The movement likely has to due a lot with the recent offensive resurgence of the Giants, as well as a pile-up of defensive injuries for Philadelphia. It looks like the Eagles will be without each of their top five cornerbacks for this game, and their secondary has been completely depleted. After an abysmal start, Eli Manning and the Giants offense have finally found a bit of a groove, scoring at least 27 points in each of their last two games. Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley should be running free all day, and the once stout run defense of the Eagles has looked mediocre at best the past few weeks. The Giants defense is also still pretty bad, giving up 35 points to the Buccaneers last week, so it makes since why this total has been trending upward.
CLE @ CIN
This is perhaps the most significant side move of the entire week, with the Browns going from three point underdogs down to a pick. The move is especially significant because it moved off the key number of three. It likely has a lot to do with the Browns’ play in the wake of Hue Jackson’s firing, as well as some injuries to the Bengals. It was thought earlier in the week that A.J. Green was going to play, but that’s no longer the case. Green is now doubtful for the game, as is starting cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. The Bengals are extremely banged up, while the Browns are very well rested coming off the bye. The Browns haven’t been very good on the road this year, but are playing with a newfound fire under interim coach Gregg Williams. They couldn’t be headed in more opposite directions health-wise, and Baker Mayfield has taken major steps forward under new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens, so this one makes sense.
SF @ TB
This line was Buccaneers -3.5 earlier this week, and is down to 2, trending through the key number of three. While the Buccaneers got some momentum last week from inserting Jameis Winston into the lineup, it probably isn’t likely to continue. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers are coming off their bye week, and having an offensive mastermind like Shanahan having an extra week to prepare is a recipe for disaster for the Bucs’ defense. Shanahan is one of the best play-designers and play-callers in the entire league, and should be able to slice up this historically bad Bucs defense. The 49ers defensive advanced metrics aren’t quite as bad as you might think, and all these factors attracted some sharp money on the underdog here. It wouldn’t be a surprise if this trended even closer to a pickem as we get closer to kickoff.
