Caleb Wilfinger
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With the second College Football Playoff rankings released on Tuesday, the 2022 season is nearing the home stretch. Last weekend’s slate was another wild one, and we should have more great action in store for Week 11.
Week 10 was an up-and-down week, which brought my best bets record to 17-10-1 over the last 9 weeks. Let’s get back on track this week!
This week’s action kicked off on Tuesday and will go deep into Saturday night. While this week’s lines have been on the move since Sunday, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 11 of the college football season.
We’ve got NCAAF picks for all the big games in Week 11!
Auburn Tigers -1.5 (-105) over Texas A&M Aggies
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Last week, I faded Texas A&M at home against Florida in what I believed was a litmus test of the Aggies’ true motivation at this point in the season. Now after losing to the Gators, we have another great situational spot to go against Texas A&M this week. After all, the Aggies have just 2 wins over FBS opponents this season; one which came over an awful Miami team and the other required a 99-yard fumble-return touchdown against Arkansas. Not only is Texas A&M a shell of itself from the preseason, but the Aggies are now in danger of missing a bowl game altogether. This team is an absolute mess and morale has to be low for Jimbo Fisher’s squad.
On the other side, Auburn is looking like a rejuvenated team with Cadillac Williams at the helm. The Tigers nearly knocked off Mississippi State on the road a week ago, and the Bulldogs are a much better team than Texas A&M. Now, the Tigers return home with a chance to keep their hopes of bowl eligibility alive. Auburn team that is looking to run the ball early and often, which is key against a Texas A&M defense that ranks outside the top 80 in rushing success rate. We can expect a heavy dose of Tank Bigsby throughout this game, and that coupled with motivation questions on the Aggies side have me backing Auburn here.
Be sure to check out our full Auburn vs Texas A&M predictions
East Carolina Pirates +5.5 (-110) vs Cincinnati Bearcats
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
This Friday matchup pits one team that I’ve believed in all season against a team that is still being overvalued based on last year’s performance. East Carolina is in the midst of a 3-game winning streak and the Pirates offense is humming of late. Led by quarterback Holton Ahlers, East Carolina is 22nd in EPA per play, 27th in EPA per rush and 30th in EPA per pass this year. It’s a balanced attack that leans on its veteran QB and one of the best backfields in the country. The Pirates offense is playing their best football of the season in recent weeks, averaging 36 points in victories over Memphis, UCF and BYU.
The Bearcats’ offense has yielded middling results thus far, as Cincinnati is 63rd in EPA margin and 71st in EPA per rush. With that in mind, slowing down this offense shouldn’t be much of a concern for the Pirates, as East Carolina is inside the top 20 in opponent EPA per rush and rushing success rate. If this stingy defense is able to have success in standard downs, that will force Bearcats quarterback Ben Bryant into difficult 3rd down situations where he’ll need to make a play. And while he’s been solid this season, Bryant just isn’t the same dynamic quarterback that Desmond Ridder was. I like the Pirates to stay hot on the road, and don’t be surprised if they win outright.
Be sure to check out our full East Carolina vs Cincinnati predictions
San Jose State Spartans -2.5 (-110) over San Diego State Aztecs
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
San Jose State has been one of the more underrated teams in the Group of 5 this season, despite a string of good results. The Spartans’ success all starts with how they are absolutely demolishing teams in the trenches. It’s on the defensive side of the ball where San Jose State is strongest, as this elite unit ranks in the top 15 in rushing success rate, passing success rate and EPA per pass. The Spartans should have no trouble against a San Diego State team that looks lost on offense. The Aztecs are outside the top 100 in offensive success rate, EPA per rush and rush success rate. They’re also a below average passing offense and rank 117th in net points per drive. Even on the road, this line should be closer to a touchdown.
Check out our best CFB Parlays for this week’s college football action
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
