For the 2020 NFL season, we have introduced NFL computer picks against the spread into our individual game previews. They give you a deeper analysis into the game over the picks write-ups on the main NFL picks page. The Pickswise supercomputer will give probabilities and projections for the main NFL betting markets (spread, total & Moneyline), best bets for spread, total, moneyline, and same game parlays. It also features prop bet probabilities for first & anytime touchdown scorer. Individual player projections for passing, rushing, receiving yards & touchdowns for betting and fantasy use.
Each week we will be running a content series called ‘Man vs. Machine’, which puts a Pickswise expert up against the computer picks. Before we get into that, let’s explain how the supercomputer works and how it generates picks.
How are the pre-game win probabilities calculated?
The Pickswise supercomputer creates pre-game probabilities using machine learning techniques as inputs to a Monte Carlo approach. This means we simulate a sporting event 10,000 times, catering for the deep range of outcomes and probabilities within a given event. We first predict the performance of each individual player based on hundreds of algorithmic variabilities, which we use to run our event simulations.
Why do the win probabilities and predictions change over time?
The probabilities are dynamic in nature and get updated as new information becomes available. This includes but is not limited to team news, weather conditions, and moves in the betting market.
What does a ‘value bet’ mean?
A value bet is where we’ve identified that the probability of the event occurring is more likely than the listed sportsbook odds. Taking these bets gives you an increased chance of being a successful gambler.
How is the change in win probability calculated during a live game?
Live win probability is a statistical metric that projects the team’s likelihood of winning at any given point by simulating the remainder of the game. Based on the performance of historical teams in the same situation and the current state of the game, the model updates in real-time following every major event during the game.
Where can I view the computer picks against the spread?
View the computer picks in our individual game previews below.
- Texans @ Chiefs
- Browns @ Ravens
- Eagles @ Washington
- Colts @ Jaguars
- Raiders @ Panthers
- Jets @ Bills
- Bears @ Lions
- Seahawks @ Falcons
- Dolphins @ Patriots
- Packers @ Vikings
- Chargers @ Bengals
- Buccaneers @ Saints
- Cardinals @ 49ers
- Cowboys @ Rams
- Steelers @ Giants
- Titans @ Broncos
To get to the individual picks from the main NFL picks page just click on the view predictions button at the bottom of each game box. We also have picks, parlays, and props for all week one games. View all of our free NFL picks week 1 here.
Man vs. Machine
Each week of the NFL season, a Pickswise expert will go up against the Pickswise supercomputer to see who is a better handicapper – man or machine! The rules are simple, the top five picks against the spread every Thursday. The supercomputer’s picks are ones that have the highest win probability.
Week 1 computer score predictions
The Pickswise NFL supercomputer is here 🤖
Get our expert’s picks & computer model predictions for #Kickoff2020 ▶ https://t.co/oudiolhTHu pic.twitter.com/K9qBS8bjtm
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) September 10, 2020
