Caleb Wilfinger
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The long and eventful offseason is in the rearview mirror and the 2023 college football season is upon us. The battle for a spot in the College Football Playoff begins on Saturday and won’t slow down until December. Could we see the Georgia Bulldogs 3-peat this season, or will another program rise to the top of the college football world?
With the offseason chaos behind us and our extensive college football previews for every conference available for your reading pleasure, it’s time to get into the Week 0 slate with the return of my weekly best bets column. The 2022 season was very profitable for this column, as I finished with a win rate over 60%, highlighted by an 8-0 run to close out championship week and bowl season. Hopefully you cashed with me!
This isn’t the most exciting slate on paper, but it does have some good value bets of which to take advantage. At the very least, it will whet the appetite before next week’s full slate of games. Let’s take a look at our best bets for the opening week of the college football season.
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Navy Midshipmen +21 (-110) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
If you’ve followed my writeups over the past couple of seasons, you’ll know that I love backing service academies when they’re catching more than 14 points against a more prestigious program. That system bore fruit with this Navy program on multiple occasions in 2022, and I’m going back to the well to start off the season with a spirited effort from the Midshipmen in Dublin, Ireland. Navy is a difficult team to handicap in large part due to its unique style of play. Throw in the fact that this is the first time any team is seeing Navy’s brand new scheme under offensive coordinator Grant Chesnut, and I expect this contest to have even more variance than usual. This is still a triple-option oriented attack, but I’m expecting a higher frequency of passing plays to keep this Fighting Irish defense on its toes.
On the other side, the Irish are welcoming in a new offensive coordinator of their own, along with Sam Hartman under center. Hartman should make Notre Dame’s offense a lot more dynamic and explosive this season, but I’d expect the Irish to struggle a bit out of the gate against a Navy defense that brings back a ton of production from a season ago. If the Midshipmen are able to keep the tempo slow and limit the number of possessions for both teams, it’s hard to see Notre Dame running away with this one. Ultimately there isn’t much data we can point to on either side, but this spot is one that has consistently favored the service academy against the spread. I’m expecting a relatively competitive Notre Dame win, so this number has value at 20 or better.
Be sure to check out our full Navy vs Notre Dame predictions
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Ohio Bobcats +3 (-110) vs San Diego State Aztecs
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is a game that has seen a significant amount of line movement, and it’s easy to see why. The Ohio Bobcats are coming off a very strong season and enter this game with the far superior offense, particularly at quarterback. Kurtis Rourke is not just one of the best QBs in the Group of 5, he’s simply one of the best in the nation. He’ll be facing a San Diego State defense that lost a ton of defensive talent from a season ago, including multiple all-conference players in the front seven and secondary. The Maple Missile threw for 2,725 yards and combined for 25 touchdowns in 11 games, and he should see more success after the Bobcats retained most of their key pieces on offense.
San Diego State’s offense has consistently been a question over the years and that won’t change with safety turned quarterback Jalen Mayden getting the start on Saturday. Mayden struggled in spring ball and while I expect him to perform better against a weak Ohio secondary, the Aztecs simply can’t get into a shootout with Rourke and expect to survive. Head coach Brady Hoke expressed concern in his defense at conference media days, which also has me skeptical of how effective that unit will be against a quality quarterback. I initially bet this line at Ohio +4.5 during the summer, but it still has value at this number.
Be sure to check out our full Ohio vs San Diego State predictions
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