Ricky Dimon
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At pretty much this exact instant last year, the sports world was starting to shut down because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Twelve months later, March Madness is going full steam ahead—albeit with little to no fans depending on the venue and an NCAA Tournament that is being played in its entirety in the state of Indiana. For now, major conference tournaments are taking center stage.
Here’s our five-team parlay for Wednesday:
Butler +5.5 (-110)
Kansas State ML (+150)
Providence -6.5 (-110)
Penn State -6 (-110)
Stanford ML (-270)
Parlay odds: +2286
For this parlay we mix in two favorites against the spread, one underdog and the points, and two money line winners (one favorite and one underdog). Let’s break down each of the five legs one by one.
Butler +5.5 over Xavier (-110)
Butler finished lower in the standings but they actually had more wins than Xavier in Big East play. Butler’s biggest challenge this season has been winning away from Hinkle Field House and this matchup does not look favourable with the Bulldogs having lost to Xavier twice during the season. Although known for being fundamentally sound, Butler has been terrible shooting free throws this season, making just 64%. They try and make games very physical but still struggle even when they do because they can’t convert. Xavier still has work to do to get into the NCAAs after finishing 1-3 down the stretch. This is a good team but it is hard to identify a real strength. Zach Freemantle has really improved his game this season and leads the team in scoring and rebounding as a sophomore. I still think Paul Scruggs is the key. He is a senior floor leader who takes and makes big shots. If he can string together a few good games they can win the Big East Tournament and not have to worry about the Selection Committee. Xavier has beaten Butler twice but beyond that is not inspiring much confidence. They are 5-8 ATS in Big East play and have only covered once in their last seven games. I think the only way they get the cover here is if they jump all over Butler and put them away early but based on the form of the team of late that seems unlikely. Butler might tire a little thanks to lack of depth but they can push the Musketeers. Even if this one might not ever be in doubt they are not going to pack it in. The Bulldogs have five upset wins too.
Kansas State ML over TCU (+150)
Now that they have been healthy, the Wildcats have been playing some good basketball recently. Since the start of February, Kansas State ranks 33rd in the country in defensive efficiency. The offense is still poor, but they have shown the ability to win games with their defense over the last month. The Wildcats are 3-1 in their last four games, with the lone loss coming at West Virginia, a game in which they trailed by just four at half. TCU on the other hand has lost six of their last seven games, with the lone win coming against Iowa State, a game in which Rasir Bolton got hurt in the first half for the Cyclones. The teams are trending in opposite directions, and are likely very similar in caliber at the moment. Strictly from a matchup standpoint, Kansas State has had turnover issues all year–which is to be expected for such a young team. The Wildcats rank last in the Big 12 in protecting the ball, but the good news is that TCU ranks last in forcing turnovers. On the other end of the floor, Kansas State ranks second in Big 12 play in defensive rebounding rate.
Providence -6.5 over DePaul (-110)
DePaul finished last in the Big East and under normal circumstances they probably would have jettisoned head coach Dave Leitao following a fifth straight season in the basement of the conference. Nothing is normal this season, though. The offense has been a struggle all season long for the Blue Demons. Providence actually held them to a season-low of 47 points in a home loss for the Blue Demons last month. Oddly, when these two teams met at Providence earlier in the year both scored in the 90s in an OT win for the Friars. Providence is on a mission to win this week. Even though they beat Villanova to close out the regular season, the Friars aren’t going to make it to the NCAAs without stealing an automatic bid. The Friars feature two of the best players in the league in David Duke and Nate Watson. That combo should be more than enough to get things off to a good start on Wednesday.
Penn State -6 over Nebraska (-110)
This Penn State team underachieved, but they’re far more talented than the Cornhuskers. The Nittany Lions played the single toughest strength of schedule in the country according to KenPom’s metrics, and Kenpom has them as the 34th-most efficient team despite the fact they’re 10-13. They lost a ton of close games to elite teams, and are being undervalued here as a result. When these teams played a couple of weeks ago at Nebraska, the spread was the same as it is here on a neutral court. When they played at Penn State earlier the spread was double digits, so I think it’s clear the line here is a little mis-priced. Penn State has far more scoring talent than your typical 10-13 team, including junior guard Myreon Jones, who’s averaging 15.5 points per game while shooting better than 39 percent from downtown.
Stanford ML over California (-270)
Oscar Da Silva reportedly “wants to play” on Wednesday, but that doesn’t tell us anything. I’m sure all players want to play rather than be injured! Stanford can win regardless; it would just be a bonus if he was able to give it a go. It’s easy to see Stanford’s most recent blowout loss to USC and assuming they are dead, but that was a terrible matchup for the Cardinal without Da Silva. They have lost all three games without him, but they did compete with Oregon just a few games ago. Perhaps they enter this tournament with a fresh start, and they are still way more talented than Cal. From a matchup perspective, Cal will need to make threes in order to have a chance. The Bears rank first in PAC-12 play in three-point attempt rate but are only shooting 32.5 percent on those attempts. Even without Da Silva, Stanford is one of the tallest teams in the country and their interior defense is very good. Given that there’s essentially only one path to points for Cal, it’s hard to trust their offense. For the purposes of this parlay we’ll go with Stanford on the money line instead of giving the points because of Da Silva’s status.
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