Matt Wiesenfeld
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Best Bet – Washington Redskins Under 6.5 Wins
Worst Bet – Washington to win the NFC
Washington has had a pretty quiet offseason, they are kind of laying low in the NFC East and not much is expected of them this season. Last season they won 7 games so they were not an embarrassment. They were actually pretty good early, starting 6-2, but after QB Alex Smith went down with his devastating injury they really struggled, losing 6 of their last 7. They have not been to the playoffs since 2015 and have not won a playoff game since 2005. Neither of those streaks seem to be in great jeopardy this season.
The fact is that Smith might never play football again so they are looking at a new signal caller for 2019. They brought in veteran Case Keenum and they drafted Dwayne Haskins in the first round. It will be interesting to see when they give the latter a chance and who gives them the best chance to win right now. The rest of the offense is mostly intact which means that mediocrity is probably the order of the day. RB Adrian Peterson rushed for over 1000 yards last season proving he is not quite done, but he is not explosive anymore. Their receiving corp is about the most bland in the NFL – no receiver or tight end had even 600 yards receiving a year ago, which is nearly impossible to do. It is hard to imagine this offense being anything more than satisfactory which means success this season will be all about the defense and whether it can be good enough to dominate opponents.
The defense was better than the offense last season and they might have got a gift in the draft with DE Montez Sweat from Mississippi State falling a little. Ryan Kerrigan had 13 sacks at defensive end and Jonathan Allen another 8 from the tackle spot. If Sweat is dynamic like many think he could be they could have one of the better defensive lines in the NFL. That is a great place to anchor the defense. The middle is in really good hands too and they made a great acquisition with Landon Collins at safety. He is coming off his worst season in the pros but if he is right he can be a dominant player at the back of the defense and coming up in run support. Washington might never see the kind of play out of CB Josh Norman that landed him the big contract but if he is your weak link it means you have a really strong group. Washington should have a plus-defense but they won’t be able to take any games off.
Redskins Win Total: O/U 6.5
The win total seems pretty fair right now but when you look more closely at their schedule you see that Washington has a really tough start to the season. I project they will start 0-5 or 1-4 at best thanks to games against Philly, Dallas, Chicago, and the defending champs New England looking like sure losses. From there it does get easier but I am not comfortable saying they can be a .500 team in all of the other games from there on out to get to that number. Especially if they start using a rookie quarterback, at which point they are really playing for the future. Recommendation: Take the Under.
Odds to make the playoffs +450
It would seem their only chance to get into the playoffs this season would be to steal the division in a down season from the Eagles or the Cowboys, the two favorites. For them to get the Wild Card seems extremely unlikely and the payoff is not all that great considering that your money is tied up for the whole season. I would much rather look at them to build a case for the division and the auto playoff berth that comes with it. Recommendation: Pass here, not enough of a payout.
Odds to win NFC East +1200
The value here is much better because of the ability to control things more through the division schedule – though less so when the divisions used to be five teams each. They have three NFC East games in the first five so we will get a very early look at things. Maybe they are a little more organized coming out of the shoot and they steal the opener at Philly. That Patriots game is at home so there is some hope and not everyone will face the Pats in their own stadium (odds are they all lose to the champs). There is just more of a chance for them to win the games they need to take the division and a greater payoff here. If they can get the QB play they need and the defense performs. If there’s a down year in the division, 12/1 looks pretty sweet. Recommendation: Take a flyer here.
Odds to win NFC +5000
If they could win the NFC East it will be because the defense really performs at an elite level. If that is the case then a run to the Super Bowl is possible because after all defense wins championships, or at least it can. Given how much of a long shot they are to take the conference I would rather bet them to win the whole thing. They are very unlikely to have a home playoff game even if they were to win the division and qualify. Recommendation: Take a pass and go for the home run.
Odds to win Super Bowl 54 +10000
Bigger risk and bigger payoff for this one. That is not the only reason to like this true gamble. If they could get to the Super Bowl then it is possible they could even be favored, right? What if it is something like Washington vs. Tennessee. Who knows who they might play if they made it that far, it’s a big risk for sure, but you would get compensated for it at a high enough level. If you like to look at teams in tiers I can see this team being better than expected if that defense really becomes a monster. You can dabble a little. Recommendation: Maybe a little sprinkle.
