Caleb Wilfinger
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Following a long and eventful college football regular season, the College Football National Championship is finally here. This year’s installment features the Michigan Wolverines against the Washington Huskies in the matchup between the top 2 seeds in the nation. Will the Huskies undefeated season end in magical fashion, or will Michigan be crowned champion for the first time since 1997?
Here is my Michigan vs Washington Same Game Parlay for Monday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN. Be sure to also check out our full Michigan vs Washington predictions
Washington ML (+164)
Under 56.5 (-110)
Blake Corum to score a touchdown (-420)
NCAAF Same Game Parlay odds: +525
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can juice the odds by not correlating the plays. That is the plan here, as Washington winning doesn’t necessarily correlate with Blake Corum finding the end zone, plus the under cashing. Let’s break down each of the legs.
Washington Huskies ML over Michigan Wolverines (+164)
It certainly feels like most of the noise surrounding this game is dismissive of Washington’s chances to pull the upset. And while that’s completely understandable on paper — Michigan’s offensive line, ground game and defense have been dominant after all — I do think the potential path to victory for the Huskies is easier to visualize than most people think. Michigan’s defense is obviously an elite unit, ranking 2nd in pass success rate, 14th in EPA per rush and 2nd in net points per drive per College Football Data. However, Michigan hasn’t played a top 25 passing offense all season long, and going up against Michael Penix Jr. will be a completely different animal for this defense.
It goes without saying that Penix can make all the throws and he also has the best receiving corps in the country at his disposal for an offense that is absolutely rolling. The dome setting should also help the Huskies’ offense and I have plenty of faith in Penix to put forth another terrific performance. As long as the elite Washington offensive line can keep Penix upright, there’s no reason why Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb can’t find avenues for success on Monday. It’s also conceivable that Washington’s rapidly improving pass rush and secondary force JJ McCarthy into a couple of key mistakes, something that we saw against Alabama and in last season’s CFP semifinal loss to TCU. At the end of the day, I’ll take a shot with the better quarterback and an excellent offensive head coach in the season’s final game.
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Under 56.5 (-110)
On first glance my immediate first look in a game involving Washington’s electric offense is usually to the over, but I actually think we’ve got a good game script on our hands for an under, especially while it’s sitting above the key number of 56. Most of the metrics would suggest that the Wolverines should see success in the trenches with their excellent running game. Therefore, Michigan should consistently just line up and bleed clock with its ground game, which certainly points me in the direction of the under. Additionally, Penix and this elite group of Washington wide receivers are also going up against their toughest test yet in a Michigan secondary that has bottled up every offense it has faced this season. It also helps that both teams play at a pretty slow pace, so this clock should be moving. Let’s back the under on Monday.
Blake Corum to score a touchdown (-420)
While this prop doesn’t have much value on its own, there is plenty of value in adding Blake Corum to record a touchdown to our Same Game Parlay. This is a terrific matchup for Corum on paper, as the Wolverines’ top running back and this outstanding offensive line should see success against a Washington run defense that has struggled all season long (outside the top 100 in success rate and EPA per rush). The Huskies are at their best defending the pass and routinely surrender touchdowns to opposing running backs around the goal line, an area where Corum constantly has a nose for the end zone. Corum has a whopping 25 touchdowns on the season, so it’s no surprise that his line is so inflated in this matchup. Regardless, let’s get to the window with Michigan’s talisman in the backfield.
