Caleb Wilfinger
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Saturday’s NFL Divisional Round action concludes with an intriguing battle in the NFC between the #6-seed Washington Commanders and #1-seed Detroit Lions. The Commanders have exceeded all expectations this season and last week’s win over the Buccaneers was another feather in the cap for Jayden Daniels and the historic rookie season he’s having. On the other side, Detroit is the Super Bowl favorite heading into this weekend and the Lions should be locked in on both sides of the ball following their Week 18 demolition of Minnesota. What will we see on Saturday? It’s almost time to find out. With tons on the line, let’s get into our Commanders vs Lions Same Game Parlay picks at +1100 odds, with the matchup airing live from 8:00 pm ET on FOX.
You can also find out all of our NFL picks on the side and total for every Divisional Round game this weekend.
Commanders +10 (-120)
Under 55.5 (-110)
Sam LaPorta to score a touchdown (+155)
Commanders vs Lions Same Game Parlay odds: +1100
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Washington Commanders +10 over Detroit Lions (-120)
Despite the fact that the historical data doesn’t favor the Commanders in this spot, I’m still interested in taking a shot on Washington here, especially since the high total suggests that this should be a high-variance game.
On paper, the matchup suggests that Detroit should be able to move the ball at will here. After all, the Lions’ offense ranks 3rd in EPA per play, 1st in success rate and 1st in both quality possessions generated and points per drive. Washington’s defense has been much-maligned this season, but this is pretty much a bang-average unit (16th in EPA per play, 13th in success rate allowed per Sumer Sports). Therefore, while the Lions offense has the clear advantage in that matchup, there’s a world where it might not be as lopsided as most would think, especially after Washington put forth a strong effort against a Tampa Bay offense that was a top-5 unit in the league this season.
Furthermore, both of these coaching staffs have been extremely aggressive all season long, and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Saturday. A game script that features a number of 4th-down attempts from both sides is one that typically favors the underdog, as it introduces variance into the game. That’s exactly how Washington wants to play, and it could lead to the Commanders stealing a couple of possessions while keeping Detroit’s elite offense off the field in the process.
On the other side of the ball, the injuries caught up to Detroit’s defense in a major way down the stretch. While Aaron Glenn’s unit has gotten a couple of key players back, there are still a few major cogs missing in the secondary, which is not ideal against a Washington passing offense that gave Tampa Bay fits a week ago. The Commanders should have potential mismatches downfield, and there could be opportunities for Terry McLaurin to make a few plays in 1-on-1 situations, as the Lions play more man coverage than any other team in the NFL. Daniels also has a ridiculous 98.1 QBR against the blitz over the past 6 games, so it’s going to be extremely difficult for Detroit to rattle this budding superstar just by bringing extra pressure.
Lastly, the trends aren’t kind to home teams in this situation either. Per Evan Abrams, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 against the spread (44%), since 2003. Additionally, they are 17-24-1 against the number (42%) as favorites of 7 or more points off a bye. Even against a team playing in its 2nd straight postseason road game, the team coming off the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%). Look for Daniels and company to do enough to keep within single digits at Ford Field.
Read our full Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions predictions with our expert’s 3-star best bet
Under 55.5 (-110)
This is not a wager for the faint of heart, but I can only lean toward the Under now that the line is sitting above a pretty key number in NFL totals. Part of what inspires a bit of confidence that we see a game that goes slightly under this total is the improvements that Detroit’s defense showed against Minnesota in that pivotal Week 18 game. We can expect Glenn and this veteran coaching staff to have all sorts of simulated pressures and exotic looks ready for Daniels, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Washington started out slow and had to play from behind for most of the game.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Daniels’ legs also become a major factor in this game against a Detroit defensive front that has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks (most notably Josh Allen) of late. The Commanders should be able to move the ball throughout, but the Lions are an excellent red-zone unit, as we just saw against Minnesota. And on the other side, while Detroit’s offense has been incredibly consistent all season long, the Lions are prone to long scoring drives this season given that they run the ball on early downs at a pretty high rate. I’ll hold my breath and take the under in the Motor City.
Find out ThatGuyBets’ best Commanders vs Lions player prop bets, targeting Jared Goff
Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown scorer (+155)
While I do like Washington to keep this game within the number, one of my favorite prop bets on the board this weekend is for Lions tight end Sam LaPorta to find the end zone for the 8th time this season. Washington’s defense struggles mightily with defending tight ends, ranking 26th in DVOA against the position on the season.
It’s also worth noting that Washington plays a ton of man coverage on defense, and Goff dominates against man coverage. He should be able to find LaPorta over the middle of the field on numerous occasions, and I’d expect the former Iowa product to be targeted early and often in this matchup. Given the advantages Detroit’s offense has in this game, the Lions should find themselves in the red zone quite often. With that in mind, I’ll take a stab on LaPorta to get free and catch his 3rd touchdown over the last 4 games.
