Caleb Wilfinger
The Houston Rockets will begin their NBA playoffs campaign as the #2 seed in the Western Conference when they host the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of a first-round series on Sunday. The Rockets rolled to the #2 seed in the Western Conference with a rock solid 52-30 record in the loaded Western Conference, while the Warriors earned the 7th seed by beating the Grizzlies in the play-in tournament opener on Tuesday night.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the action, which tips off at 9:30 pm ET on TNT. Also be sure to check out all of our NBA predictions.
Rockets ML (-118)
Under 213 (-110)
Fred VanVleet Under 14.5 points (-125)
Parlay odds: +507
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that your odds will increase if the components aren’t correlated. That is some of the plan here, as Rockets guard Fred VanVleet going under his point total does not work well on paper with a win by the home team. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Rockets ML (-118)
This opening round series between Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and the veteran Warriors against the feisty, young and inexperienced Rockets should be a total barnburner from start to finish. These two teams already played each other 5 times this season, with the Warriors coming out on top in 3 of those games, while Houston won in convincing fashion in the most recent meeting. It’s no secret that the projection models and analysts actually like this match-up for the Warriors, who have owned Houston over the years during the Curry, Draymond Green and Steve Kerr era. However, while Golden State does profile as the slightly better team in this series, I’m of the opinion that Houston starts fast on Sunday.
The biggest edge that a rested and healthy Houston team can exploit in this game is how the Rockets can defend Golden State on the perimeter. Ime Udoka’s team boasts a top 5 defense this season, and it has perhaps the best collection of perimeter defenders that Curry has ever faced in a playoff series. The headliner of this elite unit is Amen Thompson, but there are a number of capable defenders in Houston’s rotation. It’s no secret that Curry was held to just 3 points on 1-of-10 shooting when these rivals last faced off on April 6. While we can’t expect that performance to be replicated, Houston’s defense should still contain the head of the snake of Golden State’s offense. And while the Warriors are also strong defensively, I’d expect Houston to force turnovers and create easy buckets in transition throughout this game, making life easier on its halfcourt offense as a result. Ultimately, I’ll back the Rockets to take the opening game.
Under 213 (-110)
The Rockets’ biggest issue in this series is that they don’t have a clear cut go-to option on the team. The mantle of top scorer can fall in the hands of Dillon Brooks on some nights, then Fred VanVleet or Jalen Green will take over on other nights. The biggest advantage the Rockets will look to exploit here is Alperen Sengun, who crushed the glass in the 5 meetings against Golden State during the regular season, averaging over 11 boards per game while also putting up an efficient 17 points per game in those meetings. However, at the tender age of just 22, it’s reasonable to ask if he can put up with Draymond Green and company down low in a high-stakes playoff setting.
We’re expecting a hard fought series, and that coincides nicely with the under. During the regular season, 4 of the 5 games between these teams saw at least 1 team finish under 100 points, which should carry over into this game. Given that the pace typically slows down significantly in the postseason and both of these defenses being elite, let’s back the under in the series opener.
Fred VanVleet Under 14.5 points (-125)
Despite the fact that I have the Rockets pulling off the victory in this game, I’m not thrilled at Fred VanVleet’s prospects for success in this series. It’s a brutal matchup for the veteran guard, as this was the worst season of his career by the efficiency metrics, along with it being the lowest points per game (14.1) since the 2017-18 season. As the Rockets have improved over the course of the season, VanVleet has seen his scoring go down as the likes of Jalen Green and Amen Thompson have been scoring more in recent months. Against an excellent Warriors defense, it’s fair to suggest that the struggles will continue for VanVleet, even if he ends up playing heavy minutes on Sunday.
