Filip Tomic
It’s a star-studded affair on Thursday night at Crypto.com Arena, where the Golden State Warriors take on the Los Angeles Lakers. I’ve prepared a 3-leg Same Game Parlay priced at +331 odds for this occasion; you can watch the game live at 10:00 pm ET on TNT.
Get predictions on the side and total for Thursday’s slate on our NBA picks page, but now let’s dive into my Warriors vs Lakers bet!
Luka Doncic to record 8+ rebounds (-136)
Austin Reaves 2+ made threes (-280)
Stephen Curry to score 30+ points (+215)
Same Game Parlay odds: +548
Luka Doncic to record 8+ rebounds (-136)
Doncic has really stepped up his rebounding game since coming over to the Lakers. He is averaging 8.5 boards per game over his last 10 outings, collecting at least 8 of them in 7 of those games. The Lakers are expecting him to show up on the boards in Thursday’s game, against a Warriors team that’s been plagued with poor rebounding all year long. They are giving up 52.4 per game, which ranks them only 16th in the league. Judging by how the 3 meetings between the 2 teams went this year, we could be in line for another high-paced game — which automatically means an increase of rebounds across the board. Doncic’s numbers are off the chart in the last 10 meetings; he is averaging almost a triple-double at 33.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 9.6 assists per game. Only twice in those 10 games he has failed to collect 8 rebounds, so I am liking our chances with this bet. Let’s hope he doesn’t get bullied by Draymond Green down low.
Austin Reaves 2+ made threes (-280)
Being the third option on offense behind Doncic and LeBron James has opened things up for Austin Reaves, who is averaging 25.7 points per game over his last 10 outings. This might be his best stretch since becoming a pro back in 2021-22. His efficiency has also benefitted; Reaves is knocking down 52% of his attempts from the field and over 34% from 3 on 2.8 makes per game. He didn’t know down a 3 in the win over Houston, but that game was an outlier — as nobody was good offensively. This bet has cashed 7 times in the last 10 games for Reaves overall, while against the Warriors he is averaging 2.4 makes per game in the last 10 meetings. They haven’t been able to figure him. Reaves has scored 20+ in 3 of the last 4, he even had a triple-double in the game played on Christmas earlier this season. We just saw the Grizzlies shoot 40.9% from 3 against the Warriors. Together with rebounding, this is the area of play in which they struggle the most. Golden State ranks just 21st in opponent 3-point efficiency; teams are knocking down 36.4% of shots from distance. With that number going up to 37.6% over the Dubs’ last 3 games, I’m confident Reaves can make the most out of it.
Stephen Curry to score 30+ points (+215)
You are telling me we can get +215 odds on Curry to score 30 points? I am all over that bet. Curry just delivered a historic performance against the Memphis Grizzlies dropping 52 points, including 12 triples. He probably could have even broken Klay Thompson’s record for most 3s in a regular-season game (14) if the Grizzlies didn’t start double-teaming him in the fourth quarter. Curry has cooked the Lakers over the past 10 meetings, averaging 31 points per game, and he is also making an average of 5 triples per game during this stretch. He will look to make the most out of the Lakers’ recent struggles defending the 3-point line. LA is allowing 39.8% of 3-point shots to go in over their last 3 games; that’s not something you want to see if you’re a Lakers fan going into a matchup against the best shooter ever. I don’t think the Lakers will have an answer for him, so let’s back Curry to score an easy 30.
