After working 17 years in the NFL as an area scout (Philadelphia and New Orleans) and Director of Player Personnel (Buffalo), I am now back to my true passion that started in high school – using statistics and unique insights to find value. Here you can find my unique perspective on the hottest topics in the NFL, player evaluation and film reviews, plus where I see value in the betting market.
Rodgers needs to get it together — for his sake and Green Bay’s
What a fascinating offseason it was for the Packers. Your MVP quarterback makes clear that he’s unhappy and wants out, but he’s under contract and you have no obligation to trade him. Add on the layer of Aaron Rodgers publicly expressing his displeasure with the team’s front office, in particular GM Brian Gutekunst, and it quickly became the biggest (and at times ugliest) storyline of the offseason.
Full disclosure — I knew Gutekunst pretty well back in the day. We met in my first year in 2001 when I scouted the Northeast Area for the Eagles and Brian was the Northeast Scout for the Packers. We would grab beers from time to time, and “Gudey” was always very professional.
Despite that, I am confident that it’s an unbiased opinion when I say that I completely agree with what Gutekunst has done over the past couple of years. The GM’s job is to always do what is in the best interest of the team and the owner (Green Bay is unique because they do not have a true owner).
For Gutekunst and his staff to have conviction on Jordan Love and trade up to draft him is what Green Bay believes in and how they were taught. The late former GM Ted Thompson basically raised Brian in the business and made sure to engrain in his scouts that if there was a QB they valued, they would draft him no matter the current situation. That always made sense to me.
In Buffalo we never felt like we had the franchise QB. We briefly discussed going all in to trade up for Carson Wentz in the 2016 draft, but did not have the capital to realistically pull it off. In that same draft we were prepared to take Dak Prescott in the 4th round, but Dallas took him at pick 135. Our next QB was Cardale Jones, who we selected with the 139th pick. The coaches and the front office were all in agreement to draft Prescott, but we were all over the place in terms of conviction on Jones. It’s easy to say now, but why didn’t we draft Prescott in the third round?
And of course, the kicker is that this is exactly how Rodgers entered the NFL! Green Bay had Brett Favre and selected Rodgers, who sat until it was his time. And now he is upset because they traded up to draft his replacement?
From a GM perspective, the only thing a star QB may be owed is a quick call to keep him informed, but in no way should you alter your plans in the draft because a current player will be upset. You only ask players on your team about former teammates from college who may be drafted. But even that is more about their character, toughness, and work ethic… not their talent. The talent evaluations are done by the scouts and coaches only.
Third-down offense is one of the most important stats and Green Bay was ranked first in 2020. After Week 1 this season they are ranked last. Off-season practices are not used to prepare for your opponents, but are used to further improve your strengths and get better on your weaknesses. Every NFL team dedicates a period to third downs or blitz pickup periods because those reps are critical.
YPA is another major statistic for a passing offense. In 2020 the Packers ranked third and after Week 1 in 2021 they rank 28th. How can the drastic change so early in the season not be a result of the franchise QB not getting the normal amount of reps in the off-season with a shortened preseason too?
Aaron Rodgers is too talented to play like that again. This has to be more mental than physical, and I fully expect to see the Rodgers we know to show up the rest of the season.
Check out our Pickswise Debate where three of our experts give their view on the Rodgers situation
GM in the sauna: Get it together Gettleman!
Dave Gettleman put his name on Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones, but neither has shown the ability to take the Giants franchise to the next level. Barkley is a home-run hitter at this point with incredible size and speed, but did not show vision or quickness to create yards on his own. Jones looks the same every year, just staring down receivers and not reliable about taking care of the football.
Gettleman will always be judged with these two selections. Everyone except the Giants ownership and Gettleman knew Eli was not good enough to win a championship in 2018. Why not take a chance on Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson? A running back will not turn your franchise around if you do not have a QB. You follow up the Barkley selection the following year with Daniel Jones. It was not total conviction in that building for Jones. That was all on Gettleman and his ridiculous comment “full bloom love” when watching him at the Senior Bowl. Jones has shown nothing to say he can carry this franchise. Gettleman is sweating hard and will be out the door if those two do not elevate their game and Joe Judge will get total control.
Read our TNF reaction where our expert breaks down the talking points from Washington’s win over the Giants!
Week 1 film review: The eye in the sky don’t lie
The NFL is a week-to-week league in which any team can beat any other on any one day. So it is important to not rush to judgement after one game. However, after watching film of every Week 1 game, I can see which players put in truly impressive performances and which others put up what I like to call “fake stats”, where their numbers in the box score are misleading. But enough talk, let’s dive into the film.
Top 5 QBs in Week 1
- Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) – Surgeon-like with his precision accuracy. Displayed his usual toughness to get out of trouble and extend drives that deflate a defense.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC) – It’s always jaw-dropping to watch him torque his body and arm to make plays. He completes passes that other QBs could not even attempt.
- Baker Mayfield (CLE) – Just watch the throws to Njoku (2nd quarter) in between coverage and again to Njoku (4th quarter) on a corner route near the sideline. Take out that 4th quarter INT that was a force away and he may have been ranked number one.
- Jameis Winston (NO) – He ran when he had to while not forcing throws into coverage, which he has done going back to Florida State. The poise in his game was refreshing to watch.
- Joe Burrow (CIN) – The hard work battling back from his season-ending injury in 2020 showed. We saw every type of throw and I loved the touch on 4th down in overtime to C.J. Uzomah to set up the winning FG.
Bottom 5 QBs in Week 1
- Jared Goff (DET) – Fantasy stats do not always tell the story. He did not show any accuracy or playmaking ability to elevate his team when they showed life battling back.
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX) – He was consistently forcing throws while also missing easy throws. Did not display the talent that everyone saw at Clemson and looked out of place.
- Aaron Rodgers (GB) – Strange decision-making and careless throws. Lacked accuracy and quick decision-making when it was still a competitive game.
- Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – Did not look in sync with Julio Jones and was not able to rely on play-action throws due to being down by too many points which is what he does best.
- Derek Carr (LV) – His lack of accuracy was alarming especially early. Missed Waller so often on easy throws. Still do not know how they won.
Don’t forget to find out this week’s hottest trends — the five best betting trends for Week 2!
Week 2 picks and best prop bets
Chicago Bears -2.5 over Cincinnati Bengals
I love Joe Burrow and his toughness, but the problem is he better be tough because the pass protection is still a major concern. The Bengals rank last in the NFL in QB sacked percentage and now will deal with Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack. Bears head Coach Matt Nagy needs to find a way to get the ball to Allen Robinson to help a rock-solid running back in David Montgomery, but I like Chicago’s chances of picking up their first win of the season.
Denver Broncos -6 over Jacksonville Jaguars
I do not know how to talk you out of taking Denver — they are so much better than Jacksonville. The Jags are not a functioning team in terms of dropped passes and created no turnovers. Trevor Lawrence looked like a rookie last week — just sloppy! The Broncos are a very good team and when Bridgewater plays like that it makes no sense to me how they do not cover the 6.
New Orleans Saints -3.5 over Carolina Panthers
Forget the QBs! The Panthers and Saints rank first and second in opponent yards per rush, but now we really find out which defense is legit against the run. Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara are arguably the two most complete running backs in the NFL. Both are dynamic, explosive, and elusive. This will be a good test for both QBs as we’ll see who can handle the speed of the defenses, but I like New Orleans up front more than Carolina to protect Winston. Hurricane Katrina bounced us to San Antonio when I was a scout there and Coach Payton knows how to handle these situations. The Saints’ defense shut down Aaron Rodgers and can do the same thing to Darnold. It wouldn’t hurt to get this line at -3 and enjoy the action.
Prop Parlay (+554)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) – Under 58.5 receiving yards
Trevor Lawrence (JAX) – Under 251.5 passing yards
Buffalo Bills -2.5 first-half spread
Check out our sports betting analyst Jared Smith’s best Week 2 NFL bets!
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