It’s do-or-die time for the Dallas Stars as they are down 3-0 to the Vegas Golden Knights and on the brink of elimination. The Stars were crushed 4-0 in Game 3 but have the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd here as they look to keep their Stanley Cup hopes alive. Will Dallas send this series back to Vegas, or can the Golden Knights close things out and set up a date with the Florida Panthers? We’ll find out when the puck drops at 8:00 pm ET on ESPN. Let’s get into our picks, predictions, best bets and odds for Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars.
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Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars odds & betting lines
Odds for Golden Knights vs Stars courtesy of BetMGM.
Money line odds: Golden Knights +105, Stars -125
Total goals over/under: 5.5 goals
Puck line odds: Golden Knights +1.5 -250, Stars -1.5 +200
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Vegas Golden Knights vs Dallas Stars expert picks
Golden Knights vs Stars money line pick: Stars ML (-125)
We’re going back to the well on the Stars for potentially the last time in 2022-2023. They just have to be due. Before this series, the Stars had not lost consecutive games since March 16th. From that date until the start of this series, the Stars were 9-0 after a loss with a +20 goal differential in those games. That is an average win by 2.22 goals in games following a loss. Dallas has been resilient all season long and their season depends on them being resilient once again. It helps at least a little bit that the Stars will be at home in a must-win game as well. They have won 9 out of their last 12 at home and have been the second-best home team in this postseason.
Granted, being due for the sake of being due is not reason enough to take a team to win outright. But they have not been dominated as much as the series record indicates. As mentioned, they went beyond regulation in Game 1 and Game 2. In Game 3, they more than doubled up the Golden Knights on shots on goal 34-16 including 23-6 after the first period. The Stars are not far away. That sounds crazy considering the 0-3 hole in which Dallas finds itself. But they would not be in the Conference Finals if they were not a good team. This team has the pedigree and should have a jump at home with their backs against the wall.
Get our Golden Knights vs Stars Same Game Parlay at +525 odds
Golden Knights vs Stars over/under total goals pick: Under 5.5 (-110)
In terms of game totals, Game 1’s total of 7 was the outlier in Golden Knights vs Stars games between the regular season and playoffs. They played head-to-head in the regular season 3 times and there were a total of 12 goals scored for an average of 4 goals scored per game. Not much has changed aside from Game 1. With 9 total goals in Game 2 and Game 3, they averaged 4.5 goals per game. Head-to-head, including the outlier, these teams average a game total of 4.67 which makes this under 5.5 look safe. Both the Golden Knights and Stars have been successful this postseason by way of goal prevention. Outside of a somewhat bizarre 4-0 Game 3 in which 3 goals were scored in the first 7 minutes, the wins are low-scoring and ugly.
The under has been prominent in the regular season and playoffs for both teams. Between the regular season and playoffs, the over/under is 43-48-5 in Golden Knights games and 43-51-4 in Stars games. To replicate this matchup, Dallas’ home over/under and Vegas’ road over/under record is a combined 42-49-5. There is such little room out on the ice, which has fared well for low totals. There is no indication that will change however much longer this series lasts. If Vegas is going to win, it will likely be because they smother Dallas again. If Dallas wins, they likely played disciplined and capitalized on their few opportunities while minimizing that of Vegas. The unders trend looks good to continue.
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