Week 5 is upon us in the USFL, and while the play has been a little better than expected, there are still some games that leave us scratching our heads with things we never saw coming. The quarterback play continues to be the most unpredictable as teams are not only dealing with less-than-ideal talent, but injuries and illnesses forced a few backups in last week. We were 2-2 for a fourth straight week on our picks as the New Orleans Breakers covered and Johnnie Dixon went over his prop, but the Tampa Bay/Birmingham game didn’t reach its point total and Mark Thompson was inexplicably ineffective running the ball. That makes it an even 8-8 on the year.
Let’s dive right into those USFL best bets for Week 5!
How to watch the USFL in Week 5
The USFL regular season will continue on Friday, May 13 and run through mid-June before the playoffs begin. The opening matchup this weekend will see the Michigan Panthers take on the Tampa Bay Bandits, with kickoff set for 8:00 pm ET on Friday night.
- Michigan Panthers at Tampa Bay Bandits, 8:00 pm ET, Friday, May 13, USA
- New Orleans Breakers at New Jersey Generals, 3:00 pm ET, Saturday, May 14, Fox
- Birmingham Stallions at Philadelphia Stars, 12:00 pm ET, Sunday, May 15, NBC
- Pittsburgh Maulers at Houston Gamblers, 4:00 pm ET, Sunday, May 15, Fox
New Orleans Breakers -3 over New Jersey Generals (-110)
The Breakers had one slip-up against the Stallions, but for the rest of the season, the Breakers have been one of the best teams in the USFL. They have one of the more solid quarterbacks in Kyle Sloter, they might have the best running back in Jordan Ellis, and Johnnie Dixon is one of the more consistent wide receivers in the league. The Generals are also 3-1, but they have played some of the more inept offenses in Pittsburgh and Michigan and didn’t have an easy time with Philadelphia either. I don’t particularly care for their two-quarterback system, and while the Generals’ defense has been really strong against the run, their only opponent that was a strong rushing team was the Panthers.
Kyle Sloter threw for nearly 400 yards last week and seems to be coming into his own. Each time New Orleans has won it has been by six points or more, and I believe they will defeat the Generals by a touchdown or more.
Birmingham Stallions vs Philadelphia Stars Over 35.5 (-110)
This bet seems like the easiest one on the board for me. The Stallions scored just 16 last week, but it was the first time all season that they failed to put up 22 points or more. Also, their starting quarterback J’Mar Smith was forced to miss the game with an illness but should be back under center for this one. Alex McGough was decent, but Smith just runs the offense better and is also a threat with his legs which adds more versatility to the offense.
The Stars will be going with backup Case Cookus at quarterback again this week, but the guy wasn’t terrible last week, and the Stars put up 26 points against one of the better defenses in the league in Michigan. The Stallions are averaging just under 25 points a game, and if they stay at that number then we won’t need a lot from the Stars in order to cash the over. I don’t love Philadelphia’s offense, but they are averaging just over 22 points per game so it’s worth going with the over.
USFL Week 5 player prop: Kyle Sloter over 230.5 passing yards
To say that quarterback play has been inconsistent in the USFL would be one of the understatements of the year. I’d say that three of the eight teams have a decent idea of what to expect from their quarterback on a given week. New Orleans certainly fits in that category with Kyle Sloter. He is a long way from being ready for the NFL, but Sloter has topped this prop in three straight weeks and lit up the box score last week with 397 yards. Of course, he had three interceptions, but that doesn’t matter here! Even with a banged-up groin, he is still showing his toughness and talent on the football field.
The Generals give up the second-most passing yards per game with 176.8 and two of those games came against absolutely awful passing teams. I would play this prop all the way up to 250 as I believe New Orleans is going to hit a nice stride and win this game, with the majority of their offense coming through the air.
USFL Week 5 player prop: Reggie Corbin over 45.5 rushing yards
Corbin ripped off the biggest play of the USFL season last week with his 88-yard touchdown run and he has gone over 100 rushing yards in each of the last two games. We have watched coaches go away from hot hands before in the first month of this league, but Jeff Fisher loves to run the ball, so even if the carries are split up more evenly, Corbin should still get 12-15 rushes. He has shown patience and a burst of speed since being given more of a chance and the Tampa Bay Bandits give up just over 120 rushing yards per game on the ground. Corbin could be the hottest player in the USFL right now and this seems like a number he should have no trouble reaching.
Pickswise is the home of NFL Picks. Be sure to check out all of our post-Super Bowl offseason coverage as we gear up for the 2022 campaign.
