Caleb Wilfinger
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Heading into the semifinal round of these Olympic games, the United States had appeared to be head and shoulders above the rest of the field in this Men’s Basketball tournament. That wasn’t much of a surprise. After all, Team USA are heavy favorites to take home the gold medal. However, the stars and stripes were given a major scare by Nikola Jokic and Serbia in the semifinals, needing a 15-point comeback in the 4th quarter in order to advance to the Gold medal game. After rolling through group play and Brazil in the quarterfinals, the United States continues its quest for a gold medal with a matchup against Serbia in the semifinal round.
With a 16.5-point spread listed at most outlets, oddsmakers aren’t giving the France national team much of a shot to hang with the United States in this one. But, as we saw with Thursday’s semifinal against Serbia, that’s why they play the games. I nailed my best bets for USA vs Serbia and 3 of the 4 quarterfinal games, so you’ll want to see who I’m backing today.
Let’s look at the odds and my prediction for this Gold medal game game in Paris.
USA vs France Men’s Basketball betting lines and odds
Odds were available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
- Point Spread: France +16.5, USA -16.5
- Total Points Over/Under: 175.5 points
- Money Line Odds: France +880, USA -1600
USA vs France Men’s Basketball best bet: France +16.5 (-110)
I’ve said this consistently over the duration of this tournament, but for a team as talented as the United States, not all of these games will be a cakewalk. Much like we saw with Serbia in the semifinal round, I’m expecting a maximum effort from a France side that has already pulled off upsets over Canada and Germany to get to this point. The French are a deep and experienced team that should be full of confidence after knocking off a pair of medal favorites, and they haven’t even shot the ball well from deep. Victor Wembanyama will patrol the perimeter and 4-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert should get action down low in hopes of slowing down Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis. The two French bigs are joined by longtime NBA veteran Evan Fournier, along with glue guys Guerschon Yabusele and Mathias Lessort. There’s a wealth of experience and international basketball acumen for this team to draw on, plus they’ll be playing for a gold medal in front of what will certainly be a raucous crowd in Paris.
The United States is certainly the more talented and versatile team on paper, but the effort that many of the older veterans needed to expend down the stretch just to get by Serbia could prove to be costly in the early stages of this game. I’m expecting a sluggish start for the Americans here, which also plays into France’s hand defensively. France’s best chance in this game is to muck things up and make the game into a halfcourt defensive slugfest, much like its previous wins against Canada and Germany. If the game is played at a slower pace and the U.S. can’t get out and run in transition, it’ll be hard to cover a nearly 17-point number. This is a fairly inflated line for a game of this magnitude, one that the United States has only covered the number in 2 of its last 5 contests. It’s become abundantly clear that securing a victory and claiming the gold medal is more important to this team and coaching staff than winning by a large margin.
Overall, I fully expect Team USA to take home the gold medal and win this matchup by 10-13 points. However, I just can’t get there with this number given the spot and what’s at stake for both sides here. The overall skill level and veteran composure of this USA side to win out on Saturday, but I can see a game script where Wemby and France make things uncomfortable for at least a half. The backdoor should be wide open late in the 4th quarter, so let’s take France to cover this number, even as the U.S. brings home gold.
