Ricky Dimon
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Serena Williams is playing her last U.S. Open – and presumably her last tennis tournament. Riding off into the sunset with a record-tying 24th Grand Slam title does not appear to be a realistic possibility. Then again, she is Serena Williams. I suppose the GOAT can never be entirely counted out. That being said, you can find some long odds with much better value than +5000 on Williams on players who have much better chances to triumph at the year’s final Grand Slam.
The action in New York will get started on Monday, so it’s time to break down the odds to win the U.S. Open women’s singles title in addition to revealing my best bets.
U.S. Open odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +380
Simona Halep +800
Coco Gauff +1500
Elena Rybakina +1700
Aryna Sabalenka +1800
Caroline Garcia +1900
Naomi Osaka +2300
Belinda Bencic +2300
Emma Raducanu +2300
Jessica Pegula +2500
Ons Jabeur +2600
Beatriz Haddad Maia +2900
Leylah Fernandez +3100
Madison Keys +3100
Bianca Andreescu +3600
Karolina Pliskova +3600
Paula Badosa +3600
Maria Sakkari +3600
Daria Kasatkina +3600
Petra Kvitova +3600
3-star value play: Simona Halep (+800)
It would be ironic if the last tournament of Serena Williams’ career ends with her longtime coach watching his new charge win the title. That would be the case if Simona Halep lifts the trophy in two weeks’ time, as she is now working with Patrick Mouratoglou. Not including retirements and obviously not withdrawals, Halep is 16-1 in her last 17 matches – with a loss only to eventual champion Elena Rybakina in the Wimbledon semifinals. The seventh-ranked Romanian is a two-time Grand Slam champion and three-time runner-up, so outside of the Williams sisters she is one of the most experienced and successful players in the field. Although Halep’s draw isn’t great with Coco Gauff a possible fourth-round opponent, as a whole the bottom half is easier than the top half. There is a lot to like about Halep’s prospects in New York.
2-star value play: Jessica Pegula (+2500)
Jessica Pegula is a no-nonsense player who does not make a ton of headlines (which is part of the reason why she is often underpriced), but all she does is win tennis matches. The daughter of Buffalo Bills owner Terry Pegula is up to No. 8 in the world in singles and No. 6 in doubles, having enjoyed plenty of success with current doubles world No. 1 Gauff. On the singles court, Pegula recently advanced to the semifinals in Toronto and the quarters in Cincinnati. The 28-year-old could run into top seed Iga Swiatek in the U.S. Open quarterfinals, but Swiatek has cooled off since winning the French Open and she is more dangerous on clay than hard courts. Don’t be surprised if Pegula treats the home crowd to a title.
Read our best bets for the U.S. Open men’s singles title
1-star value play: Aryna Sabalenka (+1800)
Aryna Sabalenka was my best bet in Cincinnati and she came close, reaching the semifinals before falling to eventual champion Caroline Garcia. The 24-year-old comes in at No. 6 in the world, has been as high as No. 2 and reached two major semifinals last season – including at the U.S. Open. She is without question one of the best players to have never won a slam. If Sabalenka can limit the double faults (and admittedly that’s a big “if”), she has a great chance to go all the way. Getting the Belarusian at +1800 is a steal, because when she’s on her game – which she has been of late – she is one of the most talented and definitely the most powerful player on tour.
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