Ricky Dimon
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Americans have been the story at their home Grand Slam up to this point. For the first time since 2005, 3 American men find themselves in the U.S. Open quarterfinals. On the women’s side, Coco Gauff and Madison Keys are through to the last 8 and both have a very realistic chance to capture the title, especially now that world #1 Iga Swiatek is out of the tournament. Gauff and all 3 of the American men (Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton) will be back in action on Tuesday. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 9 of the season’s fourth and final tennis Grand Slam.
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Coco Gauff vs Jelena Ostapenko Over 20.5 games (-120)
What will Ostapenko do for an encore? The Latvian delivered the upset of the tournament by taking out Swiatek in 3 sets on Sunday night. To say that 3-setters have been the norm for Ostapenko of late would be a gross understatement. All 4 of her U.S. Open have required 3 sets, extending her streak to a hard-to-believe 8 consecutive 3-set matches. It always seems to be a roller-coaster ride with the 26-year-old. Unsurprisingly, the first head-to-head meeting between Ostapenko and Gauff went 3 sets and their 2023 Australian Open encounter also went over this number (Ostapenko won 7-5, 6-3). Three of Gauff’s 4 matches in New York have been 3-setters. There is no reason to go away from this trend of long matches involving these 2 women.
Ben Shelton +1.5 sets over Frances Tiafoe (+100)
I think this is a more even matchup than the odds suggest. Tiafoe is a considerable favorite, but the pressure is on him against his underdog compatriot. He also won’t have as much crowd support as he normally enjoys in New York, as an all-American showdown will leave the fans split. Shelton is quickly becoming a fan favorite, with his youthful experience and 149 MPH serves (he hit 2 of those in a 4-set win over Tommy Paul on Sunday). With the way the 20-year-old has been serving this fortnight, he can overpower pretty much any opponent — and Tiafoe is a player who likes to be on offense, not defense. Shelton should be able to take at least 2 sets and he also has a good chance to pull off an outright upset.
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Karolina Muchova -2.5 games over Sorana Cirstea (-110)
Muchova was one of my outright picks to lift the trophy before the tournament started and I’m certainly not getting off the bandwagon now. The world #10 has continued her brilliant 2023 campaign with only 1 dropped set through 4 rounds so far in New York. Muchova won’t be fazed by the business end of a Grand Slam, either, as she made it to the French Open final earlier this season and almost stunned Swiatek for the title. Cirstea, on the other hand, has never been past the quarterfinals of a major in her 17-year career and this is just her second trip to a quarterfinal. Muchova leads the head-to-head series 3-1 and won their most recent encounter 7-5, 6-4 just a few weeks ago in Montreal.
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