Ricky Dimon
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The quarterfinal lineup will be set when play wraps up at the U.S. Open on Monday night. Three American men are already into the last 8 (Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton). Coco Gauff has also safely advanced. At least 1 more American woman will be part of the quarterfinals, too, as Jessica Pegula is facing Madison Keys.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made as Labor Day Weekend comes to a close in New York.
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Jannik Sinner -2.5 games over Alexander Zverev (-110)
Zverev leads the head-to-head series 3-1, but he was the favorite in all 4 of those matches. Now the tide has clearly turned. Although Zverev’s comeback season following his 2022 ankle injury is going well, he isn’t on par with Sinner at the moment. The sixth-ranked Italian is a ridiculous 44-12 this year and he dropped only 1 set through the first 3 rounds of the U.S. Open (to 2016 champion Stan Wawrinka). Out of 9 sets won, none was more competitive than 6-4. That’s not to say that this will be a blowout, but I can count on 2 fingers at most (and maybe just 1) the number of players I would pick to beat Sinner in New York and Zverev certainly isn’t a member on that list.
Jessica Pegula -2.5 games over Madison Keys (-115)
The only previous meeting between these 2 Americans came last fall in San Diego, where Pegula cruised in straight sets. I expect more of the same on Monday. Keys is a former U.S. Open runner-up, but that was in 2017 and he is no longer at the peak of her game. Pegula, on the other hand, is most definitely playing the best tennis of her career. She is up to #3 in the rankings and just captured her biggest-ever title in Montreal. Although conditions are generally good for Keys in New York, they don’t seem to be playing as fast as she would like them for her big-hitting game. Count on Pegula winning and covering.
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Jack Draper +5 games over Andrey Rublev (-119)
Rublev’s hard-court summer has not been good at all. The world #8 did not win a single match in either Toronto or Cincinnati, so he went into New York short on confidence. Rublev at least played decent tennis during the first week, but he was also fortunate. He got to play Arthur Cazaux in round 1 instead of Emil Ruusuvuori (Ruusuvuori withdrew due to illness) and he faces Arthur Rinderknech in round 3 instead of Matteo Berrettini (Berrettini suffered a sprained ankle against Rinderknech). As for Draper, he is a massively talented Brit who has only been held down by injuries. Healthy at the moment, Draper’s U.S. Open run includes a straight-set beatdown of Hubert Hurkacz. I actually think the underdog will win this match outright.
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