Ricky Dimon
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Round 1 of the US Open wraps up on Tuesday, when defending men’s champion Carlos Alcaraz kicks off his title defense. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula and Venus Williams will all be in action. It’s a jam-packed order of play in New York, where I’m trying to continue a recent hot streak of success. I have cashed +1000 and +1600 futures winners in 2 of the past 3 weeks and came within 1 win of hitting Jiri Lehecka at +1800 this past week at the Winston-Salem Open.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 2 of the year’s fourth and final Grand Slam, and also be sure to check out my best outright bets on both the men’s and women’s sides.
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Emil Ruusuvuori +5.5 games over Andrey Rublev (-122)
A brutal first-round draw definitely isn’t what Andrey Rublev needs at the moment. The world #8 has not won a single match on hard courts this summer, as he lost right away at each of the recent 1000-point tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati. Now he has to go up against Emil Ruusuvuori, who just upset him at the Cincinnati event. They also faced each other at the 2023 Australian Open, when Rublev got the job done but required 4 sets to do so. Ruusuvuori is playing the better tennis right now and could very easily win outright again. Getting 5.5 games with the Finn should be more than enough.
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Yafan Wang ML over Caroline Garcia (+132)
Caroline Garcia is favored here for only one reason: she is a big name and the much higher-ranked player in this matchup. Of course, the oddsmakers and the betting public are making a mistake. In reality, Wang should clearly be the favorite. The 29-year-old boasts a 56-10 record for her 2023 campaign, including 32-4 on hard courts. Even though much of her work has come in the minor leagues of tennis, those are numbers that cannot be discounted. It’s also worth noting that Wang won her most recent matchup against Garcia, who is a horrendous 2-5 in her last 7 matches and during this stretch doesn’t have a win over anyone in the top 50 of the WTA rankings. I have Wang winning straight up, so I won’t even bother with the 2.5 games.
Parlay: Andy Murray over Corentin Moutet and Max Purcell over Christopher O’Connell (-121)
Both of these matches should be relatively straightforward and I will happily put my eggs in the baskets of Andy Murray and Max Purcell. Since his comeback from hip surgery in 2019, Murray has lost at a Grand Slam to an opponent ranked outside the top 25 only once. Moutet, who comes in at #72, owns a 6-13 record on the ATP Tour this year. Meanwhile, Purcell has been on fire this summer. The Australian is up to #43 in the rankings thanks in part to a quarterfinal run at the Cincinnati Masters and also a quarterfinal result this past week in Winston-Salem. Conditions are similar in New York and they are great for his big-serving, net-charging style
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