Ricky Dimon
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Center stage belongs to the women on Thursday at the U.S. Open. Before the men’s semifinals are held on Friday, the 4 remaining women in Flushing Meadows will battle for a spot in the championship match. It all comes down to this quartet: Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Karolina Muchova and Madison Keys. Gauff is going up against Muchova, while Sabalenka and Keys are set for a huge-hitting affair.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 11 of the season’s fourth and final Grand Slam.
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Karolina Muchova +3.5 games over Coco Gauff (-115)
I think this match is close to a toss-up, so I will happily take the +3.5 games with Karolina Muchova. Coco Gauff won their only previous head-to-head meeting 6-3, 6-4 in the Cincinnati final last month, but Muchova was clearly less than 100 percent in that match. The Czech played a whopping 4 matches that went 3 sets on her way to the title game, including a huge semifinal win over Sabalenka. The world #10 will have no such issues this time. She has dropped only 1 set so far in New York and 8 of her 10 victories sets have come by scorelines no more competitive than 6-3.
Muchova has already reached a Grand Slam final this year at the French Open, so she is no stranger to this kind of stage. The pressure is on Gauff as a big favorite and I don’t see her being able to win this one easily.
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Madison Keys +4.5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-135)
Madison Keys has a chance to win any match whenever she takes the court, such is the nature of her huge-hitting game. Sure she can go off the rails at times, but that is less often the case at the US Open (and at Grand Slams in general) than it is at other tournaments. This is Keys’ third trip to the semifinals in New York, including a runner-up performance in 2017, and she has reached at least the quarters of all 4 majors at least twice. She just loves the big stage — especially the one in front of the home crowd.
Aryna Sabalenka won at Wimbledon in straight sets earlier this summer, but Keys was right in it and had plenty of break chances that would have made the match much more competitive if even one had been converted. This spread is too big, so I will take the underdog.
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