Ricky Dimon
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Quarterfinal action at the US Open wraps up on Wednesday. The highlight is a blockbuster matchup between Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev. On the women’s side, Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, Karolina Muchova and Beatriz Haddad Maia are taking the court. I went 3-0 with my US Open best bets yesterday, so let’s ride that momentum and have ourselves another big day with my US Open tennis predictions for Day 10!
Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Over 37.5 games (-120)
Get your popcorn ready for Sinner vs Medvedev. It’s a matchup that should be the championship match based on who is left in the men’s singles draw, but alas they will square off in the quarterfinals. These 2 Grand Slam title winners have already met twice at Grand Slams this year (Australian Open and Wimbledon) and both have gone the distance. 4 of their last 5 encounters have required decisive sets, and the matchup before that featured a pair of tiebreakers. Sinner is the #1 player in the world; Medvedev is a US Open champion (2021) and also a 2-time runner-up (2019, 2023). At 37.5, this is absolutely the steal of the entire US Open on the betting market. It will probably move to 38.5 or perhaps all the way to 39.5, and even at those numbers it remains extremely playable.
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Karolina Muchova -1.5 sets over Beatriz Haddad Maia (+120)
You have to like Muchova’s chances in the most surprising of the 4 women’s quarterfinal matchups — and you have to like them a lot. I really see the Czech winning this one without too much trouble. Haddad Maia has to be running on fumes. The left-hander from Brazil advanced to the Cleveland final (lost to unheralded American McCartney Kessler) right before arriving in New York and now Haddad Maia is coming off a grueling 3-set victory over Caroline Wozniacki on Monday afternoon.
Moreover, BHM is 0-3 lifetime in the head-to-head series against Muchova and 1-6 in total sets. Muchova is ranked 52nd because of injuries but she is a top-5 talent (she has been as high as world No 8 and was the runner-up at Roland Garros last spring). Her only hard-court loss this summer is a 3-setter against Jessica Pegula in Cincinnati and she crushed French Open and Wimbledon runner-up Jasmine Paolini in easy straight sets on Monday. Muchova hasn’t lost a single set this entire event and I expect that to continue today.
Jessica Pegula +4.5 games over Iga Swiatek (-105)
Pegula was my 3-star best bet at the beginning of the tournament to win the women’s singles title and there is no reason to get off the bandwagon at this point. The world #6 has not lost a set through 4 rounds and only 1 set has been more competitive than 6-4. Thus continues Pegula’s summer surge that started with her winning the Toronto WTA 1000 title before finishing runner-up at the Cincinnati WTA 1000 (lost to US Open title favorite Aryna Sabalenka). Swiatek has not been great so far this summer, perhaps suffering a Paris Olympics hangover after taking a surprising clay-court loss to eventual gold medalist Qinwen Zheng. Pegula has defeated Swiatek 3 times in 9 tries, which is a decent record compared to the standards of most of Swiatek’s opponents. A native New Yorker (and daughter of the Buffalo Bills owner), Pegula even has a good chance to win this one outright in front of the home crowd.
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