Ricky Dimon
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The business end of the U.S. Open has arrived, which means the number of matches on each daily schedule is dwindling at a rapid rate. Fortunately there is still plenty of value to be found – and that is exactly what I think I’ve done with Wednesday’s quarterfinal lineup. It’s an intriguing slate that features Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Aryna Sabalenka.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 10 of the season’s fourth and final Grand Slam.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev Over 36.5 games (-105)
Zverev endured an energy-sapping 5-setter against Jannik Sinner in extremely humid conditions on Monday night, but I don’t think he will be suffering any ill effects. In a way, Grand Slams are not as taxing as some other tournaments (such as Masters 1000s) because players always get a day off in between matches. It’s not like Alcaraz is 100 percent, either (he had his thigh taped during a fourth-round win over Matteo Arnaldi). Zverev leads the head-to-head series 3-2, including a victory in their only previous major meeting (2022 French Open) that went to a fourth-set tiebreaker and included 43 total games. Alcaraz is obviously a heavy favorite on Wednesday, but Zverev should definitely be able to make this match competitive.
Marketa Vondrousova vs. Madison Keys Under 22.5 games (-122)
I would avoid a bet on either woman like the plague. Vondrousova is dealing with an apparent shoulder injury and Keys is one of the most inconsistent players on the WTA Tour. The way to play this contest is the under. In 3 of her 4 matches so far at the U.S. Open, Vondrousova has played 16 games or fewer. Keys has played no more than 18 games in 3 of her 4 outings. When the big-hitting American is playing well, she can crush any and all opponents. When she isn’t, well…she generally loses in a hurry. If Vondrousova is less than 100 percent, Keys will likely roll. If the Wimbledon champion is healthy, it could be a similarly extreme result in the other direction.
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Parlay: Daniil Medvedev over Andrey Rublev and Aryna Sabalenka over Qinwen Zheng (-132)
Rublev already holds the all time record for most men’s singles Grand Slam quarterfinal losses without ever reaching a semifinal (0-8). Such futility can reach 0-9 when Rublev faces Medvedev on Wednesday. Needless to say, there is a massive amount of pressure on Rublev — even as an underdog in the match — to finally get over the hump. Unfortunately for him, he probably won’t. Medvedev is a 2-time U.S. Open finalist (2021 champion, 2019 runner-up) and he is 6-2 lifetime against Rublev (including 2-0 at slams, with a straight-set victory in the 2020 U.S. Open quarterfinals). Meanwhile, Sabalenka has won her last 2 matchups with Zheng and the 20-year-old China is making her first-ever major quarterfinal appearance. The soon-to-be world #1 will likely have way too much power and experience.
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