Ricky Dimon
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Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
Total: 53
It will be a crucial showdown in the AFC West when the Chiefs and Chargers collide at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Thursday night. Even beyond the intriguing nature of this rivalry, it is by far the best game on the entire Week 15 NFL schedule based on records—the only one in which both teams are more than two games over .500. And both of these squads are way over .500, with Los Angeles coming in at 10-3 and Kansas City one game ahead at 11-2.
The Chiefs opened at 3.5 favorites and that line has not changed. As for the over/under, however, it opened at 56.5 and has already plunged to 53.
Gordon a game-time decision
Chargers running back Melvin Gordon, who has missed the last two games with a sprained MCL, is expected to be a game-time decision on Thursday. Despite having been sidelined from three total contests this season, Gordon is still sixth in the AFC in rushing at 802 yards (80.2 per game). The former Wisconsin standout is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and he has scored nine touchdowns. Gordon has gained just 3.7 yards per rush in six career outings against Kansas City, but he has also made 15 receptions for 193 yards—including nine for 102 in a season-opening 38-28 loss on Sept. 9.
Gordon being absent would be especially troublesome for Los Angeles because backup Austin Ekeler is in the NFL’s concussion protocol. Ekeler was injured late in last Sunday’s 26-21 victory over Cincinnati. If both running backs end up being shelved, rookies Justin Jackson and Detrez Newsome could get considerable playing time.
L.A. is 9-1 in its last 10 contests since starting the year 1-2 and it is currently riding a three-game winning streak.
Mahomes still playing like an MVP
The Chiefs scored only 27 points last weekend, which is well below their average of 36.2 per contest (second most in the NFL). But when you consider those 27 points came against Baltimore, there is nothing shameful in that output. After all, the Ravens are No. 2 in the league in total defense and at the very top in scoring defense. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes added to his resume of amazing plays with a no-look pass and a fourth-down heave across his body while leading the way to a dramatic 27-24 win over Baltimore. Mahomes was picked off once but threw for 377 yards and two touchdowns.
K.C. is 6-1 in its last seven outings. Competitive games have been the theme of the past three weeks, as Mahomes and company lost to the Rams 54-51 and then scraped past Oakland 40-33 before surviving against Baltimore.
Trends
The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four on the road, 15-7 ATS in their last 22 on the road against opponents with winning home records, and 5-1 ATS in their last six on Thursdays. Kansas City is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four overall.
But all is not lost for the Chiefs when it comes to trends. They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 against the AFC, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 against the AFC West, 4-1 ATS in their last five against opponents with winning records, and 4-0 ATS in their last four against the Chargers. However, the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head matchups.
Over/under trends are also a mixed bag. The under is 5-2 in the Chargers’ last seven overall, 4-1 in their last five against the AFC, and 8-1 in their last nine against the AFC West. But the over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last six overall, 3-0-1 in their last four against the AFC, and 4-1 in their last five on Thursdays.
