Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
This weeks’ card will feature a Main Event between two guys that seem to genuinely hate each other. Both are top contenders in the Welterweight division and will be looking to make their case for another shot at the title.
We’ll share our UFC Fight Night 178 best bets here but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 178 predictions homepage, if you want, picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC Fight Night 178 Best Bets
Main Card
Colby Covington Win by Decision (-130)
Covington comes into this fight 15-2 in the MMA and 10-2 in the UFC. He did lose his last fight to Kamaru Usman by TKO back in December of 2019. Covington is an excellent striker, averaging 4.17 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is only 37% however, which is a little concerning. Covington is also known for his ability to grapple, averaging 4.91 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He lands his takedowns at 51% and defends them at 78%.
Woodley comes into this fight 19-5-1 in the MMA and 9-4-1 in the UFC. His last two fights have resulted in losses, with the most recent one coming to Gilbert Burns back in May of this year. He is not that great of a striker, averaging just 2.38 significant strikes per minute, but has a striking accuracy of 49%. He only absorbs 2.65 strikes per minute, but was out-struck by Burns 83 to 28 and 141 to 34 by Usman.
Based on a couple of his previous performances, I do not like Woodley in this fight. He has looked lost in last two fights and Covington has the clear advantage standing up. Covington can also wrestle quite well an even though Woodley has a 90% takedown defense, I do not see him being able to do much. Six of Covington’s 12 UFC fights have gone to decision (all wins), so I will back him here to control this fight for 25 minutes and win on the Judge’s scorecards.
Khamzat Chimaev Win by Finish (-195)
Chimaev is one of the top prospects in the UFC after his fantastic start to the UFC. Back in July, he won two UFC fights in a matter of 10 days, winning both by finish. Chimaev is brutal in the stand-up game, averaging 8.88 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is insane at 72%. He also is absorbing 0.11 strikes, so he is not taking damage at all. His grappling game is just as impressive, averaging 4.81 takedowns per every 15 minutes at 75% accuracy. He averages 3.2 submission attempts per every 15 minutes.
Meerschaert most recently lost to Ian Heinisch by TKO at UFC 250 in June of this year. He is not as great of a striker, landing 3.31 significant strikes per minute. His accuracy though is only 42%. Now he is absorbing 3.58 strikes, but has just two knockout losses in his career. His grappling is decent, averaging 2.34 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 43% and his takedown defense is 46%. Meerschaert has lost eight times in his career by submission, so a fight on the ground could be a huge problem.
The only way I can look in this fight is Chimaev. His money line is unplayable and with his ability to win by KO/TKO and submission, I cannot pick between the method of victory. As a result, I will just back Chimaev to win inside the distance.
Preliminary Card
T.J. Laramie Win by Finish (-145)
Laramie might be making his UFC debut, but he is one of the biggest favorites of the night. His most recent fight and probably the reason why he is here, came back in August of this year. He fought on Dana White’s Contender series, winning by TKO to earn a contract. Laramie averages 3.20 strikes per minute and lands them with an accuracy of 59%. He absorbs basically no damage, just 0.80 strikes per minute. He will also be looking to grapple with his opponent, averaging 3.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Minner is coming of his UFC debut, a loss to Grant Dawson back in February of this year. He is more than likely going to try and take this fight to the ground, where he averages 1.65 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.3 submission attempts over the same time period. Though his takedown accuracy and defense both sit at just 33%.
Out of Minner’s 11 losses, 10 have come inside the distance. Most notably, he has lost eight times by submission, including in his UFC debut. Laramie has finished nine of his 12 wins, seven by KO/TKO and two by submission.
