Matthew Lowrimore
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Get our experts’ analysis and UFC predictions ahead of the first event on ‘fight island’. Our experts make their UFC 251 predictions and give a detailed betting preview for their best bets on both the main and preliminary cards. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC 251 is approaching, but it is important that we find value in a possible parlay before it is too late. Waiting too long means the lines could change significantly and any bets could lose their value.
Here is our favorite three-fight parlay that pays at odds of +173. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 251 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
Bet $20, Get $100 when you bet Usman or Masvidal to win!
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Petr Yan (-250)
Our first title fight at UFC 251 will see Petr Yan take on Jose Aldo. This will be a fight for the UFC Bantamweight title. Yan enters this fight as the clear favorite, posting an MMA record of 14-1 and a perfect UFC record of 6-0. He has won 9 fights in a row, dating back to 2016 when he had not even signed a UFC contract yet. Yan will look to keep this fight standing where he averages 5.65 significant strikes per minute.
In terms of fighting on the ground, Yan averages 1.73 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown defense of 87%, so he rarely will get taken down to the mat. Yan dominated Urijah Faber in his last fight, out-striking him 54 to 18 and landing a TKO in the third round. Aldo is clearly past his prime and I believe that will show in this fight as Yan will be crowned the new Bantamweight champion.
Alexander Volkanovski (-230)
The Co-Main event at UFC 251 and the Featherweight title fight will see Alexander Volkanovski take on Max Holloway. Volkanovski is the overwhelming favorite, coming in 21-1 in his MMA career and a perfect 8-0 in the UFC. He defeated Holloway in their first fight, beating him by unanimous decision back in December of 2019.
Volkanovski is a well-balanced fighter, averaging 6.15 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 57%. He absorbs 3.14 strikes per minute, so his defense is pretty solid as well. As for his ground-based fighting, Volkanovski averages 2.16 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but only lands them at 34%. On the flip side, he has a takedown defense of 72%, so he does not go down easily. When he fought Holloway in December, Volkanovski out-struck him 157 to 124. Volkanovski damaged Holloway with leg kicks in the first fight continuously and I think we will see more of the same here.
Kamaru Usman (-278)
The main event at UFC 251 and Welterweight title fight will see Kamaru Usman take on Jorge Masivdal after Gilbert Burns dropped out due to testing positive for COVID-19. Usman has been nearly perfect in his MMA career, posting a record of 16-1. He is currently riding a 15-fight win streak dating back to 2013, and is 11-0 in the UFC. He recently defended his title against Colby Covington back in December of 2019, winning by TKO in the 5th round. Usman controlled this fight throughout, out-striking Covington 175 to 143. He is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC, averaging 4.60 significant strikes per minute and landing his strikes at 52%. As for takedowns, he averages 3.44 per every 15 minutes with an accuracy of 50%. Given that Masvidal is fighting on short notice, I expect the balanced fighting style for Usman to help him get the job done.
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