Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC on ESPN 28 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a middleweight fight as the main event.
We’ll share our UFC on ESPN 28 best bets here but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 28 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
Read our UFC on ESPN 28 four-fight parlay!
UFC on ESPN 28 main card best bets
Kyung-Ho Kang vs Rani Yahya – Fight to go the distance – No (+100)
Rani Yahya comes into this fight 16-7-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Ray Rodriguez by submission in March. Yahya is averaging only 1.57 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 37%. He is absorbing 1.70 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. Grappling is where Yahya will look to excel, averaging 2.89 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.0 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 33% and his takedown defense is 24%.
Kyung-Ho Kang comes into this fight 6-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Pingyuan Liu by split decision in December 2019. Note that this has been a rather long layoff, which is something to consider for this fight. Kang is averaging 2.52 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 44%. He is absorbing 2.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. Grappling is also a big part of Kang’s fight style, averaging 2.53 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 59% and his takedown defense is 71%.
Yahya has seen 12 of his 24 UFC fights end inside the distance with 11 of them coming by submission. All three of Kang’s finishes have also come by submission, so I am expecting the winner of this fight to be able to control the grappling. Yahya’s takedown defense is certainly a concern though, so just backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
UFC on ESPN 28 preliminary card best bets
Collin Anglin ML (+115) vs Melsik Baghdasaryan
Collin Anglin comes into this fight 1-0 in the UFC, but this will be his official UFC debut. Anglin is averaging 5.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 3.47 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. Though only one fight, Anglin has looked like an elite grappler. He is averaging 3.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 75% and his takedown defense is 100%.
This fight looks to be a toss-up since both guys have not yet made the walk to the Octagon. Despite Melsik Baghdasaryan’s solid takedown defense in his lone Contender Series fight, he has only lost by submission. Anglin has also never lost by TKO/KO, so because he appears to be much more balanced, backing him as a small underdog will be the play for this fight.
Chris Gruetzemacher vs Rafa Garcia – Fight to go the distance – No (-110)
Chris Gruetzemacher comes into this fight 3-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Alexander Hernandez by TKO/KO in October 2020. Gruetzemacher is averaging 7.02 significant strikes per every minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 5.54 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. Gruetzemacher is not a very good grappler, though he does defend takedowns 62% of the time.
Rafa Garcia comes into this fight 0-1 in the UFC, most recently losing his UFC debut to Nasrat Haqparast by unanimous decision in March. Garcia is averaging 3.47 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 23%. He is absorbing 6.60 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. He also has yet to some any grappling ability in the UFC, but defends takedowns 100% of the time.
Garcia has seven wins by submission and has finished 8 of his 11 wins. Gruetzemacher on the other hand, has lost three times by submission and has seen 14 of his 18 career fights end inside the distance. Because of this fact, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the top play.
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