Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
We are back in Abu Dhabi on Fight Island for this midweek card. The Main Event will feature a Welterweight fight between two of the top contenders.
We’ll share our UFC on ESPN 20 best bets here but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 20 predictions homepage if you want picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC on ESPN 20 Best Bets
Main Card
Neil Magny Money Line (-140)
Neil Magny is a decent sized favorite coming into this fight and has a professional record of 24-8 in the MMA. In the UFC, he is 17-6 and is currently riding a three-fight win streak. Magny most recently beat Robbie Lawler by unanimous decision back in August of 2020. He is averaging 3.96 significant strikes per minute, landing them at an accuracy of 48 percent. He is only absorbing 2.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 56 percent. Magny is also a solid grappler, averaging 2.63 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 45 percent and his takedown defense is 59 percent. It is worth noting that Magny has lost by submission four times in his career with three of those coming in the UFC.
Michael Chiesa comes into this fight also riding a three-fight win streak. The difference with Chiesa is that he has not fought since January of 2020. Chiesa is not known for this striking, averaging just 2.07 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is only 39 percent, which is also a concern. Though he is only absorbing 1.95 strikes per minute and has only been knocked out once in the UFC. Grappling will be where Chiesa will look to excel, averaging 3.84 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same time period.
Magny is starting to gain some attention in the Welterweight division with his current win streak. His striking looks to be better here, so as long as he can stop the takedowns, Magny looks to be the better side.
Preliminary Card
Mason Jones Money Line (+150)
Mike Davis is the favorite here and comes into this fight 8-2 in the MMA. He is 1-1 in the UFC after beating Thomas Gifford by KO back in October 2019. Clearly, it has been a long layoff for Davis, so it is going to be hard to determine how effective he will be. Davis is averaging 5.87 significant strikes per minute. At the same time, he is absorbing 6.36 strikes per minute, so his chin could still be an issue. His grappling is not the best, averaging 0.77 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Especially since his takedown accuracy is 33 percent, his wrestling is not reliable enough.
Mason Jones will make his UFC debut here and comes into this fight with a perfect 10-0 record. He is very balanced by the fact that he has four KO/TKO wins, three submission wins and three decision wins. His last fight was a Cage Warriors event back in September 2020, so he has the advantage of being fresher so to speak. His last two fights have also ended in the first-round, so he has proven he can finish a fight quickly.
Jones appears to be an exciting prospect and has had several fights where he was able to comeback from early adversity. Getting plus money with an undefeated fighter feels too good to pass up, so my play would be for Jones to make an early impression on the rest of the Lightweight division with a huge win.
Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision (-125)
Umar Nurmagomedov is one of the biggest favorites on this entire card and he has not even fought in the UFC yet. He is a perfect 12-0 in the MMA, but has not fought since November of 2019. Nurmagomedov has six finishes in his career, one by KO/TKO and five by submission. His other six wins have come by means of decision. Six of his last eight fights have come by decision, so he would be perfectly content with controlling this fight and letting the judges declare him as the winner.
Sergey Morozov comes into this fight 16-4 in the MMA and will also be making his UFC debut here. He is currently riding a five-fight win streak with his last fight coming in October of 2019. Morozov has 11 finishes in his career, eight by KO/TKO and three by submission.
With both guys being new, look for this one to be more of a slow-paced fight. Nurmagomedov still looks to be the better fighter, but taking him to win by decision would be my play.
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