Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 263 takes place in Glendale, Arizona. The card will feature two title fights with the middleweight title featuring as the main event.
We’ll share our UFC 263 best bets here but head over to our main UFC 263 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC 263 main card best bets
Marvin Vettori vs. Israel Adesanya – Fight to go the distance – Yes (-135)
Israel Adesanya comes into this fight 9-1 in the UFC, most recently suffering his first ever loss to Jan Blachowicz in March of this year. Adsesanya is averaging 3.95 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49 percent. He is absorbing 2.63 strikes and has a striking defense of 61 percent. Now his grappling is not a huge part of his fighting style, but he does defend takedowns 82 percent of the time.
Marvin Vettori comes into this fight 7-2-1 in the UFC, having won five fights in a row. Vettori is averaging 4.14 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 44 percent. He is absorbing 2.90 strikes and has a striking defense of 63 percent. His grappling is going to be extremely important in this fight as he is averaging 2.22 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 53 percent and his takedown defense is 78 percent.
These guys fought in April 2018, with the contest ending in a split-decision win for Adesanya. This fight is likely to be just as tight, seeing as Vettori has improved so much since then. Eight of Vettori’s ten UFC fights have gone the distance as have six of Adesanya’s ten UFC contests. Vettori’s grappling should make the difference maker in this fight and it should go the full five rounds.
Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo – Over 3.5 rounds (-125)
Deiveson Figueiredo comes into this fight 9-1-1 in the UFC, most recently drawing with Moreno at UFC 256. Figueiredo is averaging 3.38 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56 percent. He is absorbing 3.35 strikes and has a striking defense of 50 percent. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.57 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.4 submission attempts during the same time period. Figueiredo has a takedown accuracy of 50 percent and a takedown defense of 61 percent.
Brandon Moreno comes into this fight 6-2-2 in the UFC. Moreno is averaging 3.41 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38 percent. He is absorbing 3.41 strikes and has a striking defense of 59 percent. Moreno is also a very good grappler, averaging 2.01 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 45 percent and a takedown defense of 67 percent.
Even though Moreno went blow-for-blow with Figueiredo in the previous fight, I am not extremely confident he can get the win. We could be in store for another crazy fight that will go into at least the fourth round. Maybe we get a late finish, though, so I am going to back this fight to go over 3.5 rounds.
Leon Edwards vs. Nate Diaz – Edwards to win by decision (+130)
Leon Edwards comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-3. He is 10-2 in the UFC with one no contest. That no contest came in his last fight back in March. Edwards is averaging 2.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47 percent. He is absorbing 2.03 strikes and has a striking defense of 55 percent. His grappling is pretty decent, averaging 1.35 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is only 30 percent and his takedown defense is 70 percent.
The long layoff for Nate Diaz is worrying and Edwards should continue his win streak. Nine of Edwards’ 12 UFC fights have been wins by decision, so backing him to win on the cards looks the smart play.
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