Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 56 takes place on Saturday at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri. This card features a heavyweight fight between Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento as the Main Event. Here are our best bets, which will include 3 fights on the Main Card.
Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC on ESPN 56 Main Card fights.
UFC on ESPN 56 Main Card Best Bets
Rodrigo Nascimento ML over Derrick Lewis (+130)
The Main Event at UFC on ESPN 56 will see Derrick Lewis take on Rodrigo Nascimento in the UFC Heavyweight division.
Nascimento comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1 and he is 5-1 in the UFC. Nascimento is averaging 4.31 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 4.76 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. He also has proven to be a very good grappler, averaging 1.20 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 0.7 submission attempts during the same time period. Nascimento’s takedown accuracy is 33% and his takedown defense is 77%.
Lewis is the moderate-sized favorite in this fight, but given that he has lost 4 of his last 5 UFC fights and his form is lacking, avoiding him looks to be the best option. Nascimento, on the other hand, has won 3 fights in a row and has the significant edge in both striking and grappling. Because of that, backing Nascimento to win will be our best bet.
Carlos Ulberg Win by Finish over Alonzo Menifield (-115)
The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 56 will see Alonzo Menifield take on Carlos Ulberg in the UFC Light Heavyweight division.
Ulberg comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-1 and he is 6-1 in the UFC. Ulberg is averaging 7.29 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. He is absorbing 3.59 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 0.95 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Ulberg’s takedown accuracy is 75% and his takedown defense is also 75%.
Ulberg is the heavy favorite in this fight, so instead of backing his money line we will be looking at how he could win. Ulberg has won 5 of his last 6 UFC fights by finish, which includes his last 4 fights in a row. Because of that, backing Ulberg to win by finish will be our best bet.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne – Fight to Start Round 2 (+100)
The first fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 56 will see Waldo Cortes-Acosta take on Robelis Despaigne in the UFC Heavyweight division.
Despaigne is the heavy favorite in this fight, but his lack of UFC experience makes him a risky fighter to back. Instead, we will simply look for this fight to start round 2. Cortes-Acosta has never lost by finish, while Despaigne has never lost in general. Also, Cortes-Acosta has seen 4 of his last 6 UFC fights go to at least the second round. Therefore backing this fight to start round 2 will be our best bet.
