Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 54 takes place on Saturday night at the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. This card features a women’s flyweight fight between Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot as the Main Event. Here are my best bets for this UFC card, which will include 3 fights on the Main Card.
Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC on ESPN 54 Main Card fights.
UFC on ESPN 54 Main Card Best Bets
Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot – Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-120)
The Main Event at UFC on ESPN 54 will see Erin Blanchfield take on Manon Fiorot in the UFC women’s flyweight division. Blanchfield comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-1 and she is 6-0 in the UFC. Blanchfield is averaging 5.58 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. She is absorbing 3.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. Her grappling has been elite so far, averaging 2.86 takedowns per every 15 minutes, and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. Blanchfield has a takedown accuracy of 36% and a takedown defense of 83%.
Fiorot comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1 and she is 6-0 in the UFC. She is averaging 6.05 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. Fiorot is absorbing 3.31 strikes and has a striking defense of 69%. Her grappling is also solid, averaging 1.36 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 46% and her takedown defense is 91%.
Blanchfield is the heavy favorite in this fight, but with both fighters being undefeated in the UFC, we will instead target this fight to go the distance. Both Blanchfield and Fiorot have never lost by a finish in their careers, therefore backing this fight to go the distance will be our best bet.
Joaquin Buckley ML over Vicente Luque (-102)
The Co-Main Event at UFC on ESPN 54 will see Vicente Luque take on Joaquin Buckley in the UFC welterweight division. Buckley comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-6 and he is 7-4 in the UFC. Buckley is averaging 3.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 33%. He is absorbing 3.31 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. Buckley’s grappling has been solid, averaging 1.51 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 36% and his takedown defense is 65%.
This fight is basically even, with Luque as a very slight favorite. That said, Luque is just 1-2 in his last 3 UFC fights, whereas Buckley is 2-1 in his last 3 fights, which includes back-to-back wins. Buckley lacks slightly in striking volume, but does a better job at absorbing damage, plus he has a slight advantage in grappling. For that reason, backing Buckley to win will be best bet.
Chris Weidman take on Bruno Silva – Fight to Start Round 2 (-200)
The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC on ESPN 54 will see Chris Weidman take on Bruno Silva in the UFC middleweight division. Silva is the clear favorite in this fight, but with both fighters just 1-4 in their last 5 UFC fights, neither one of them looks to be a worthwhile be on the money line. Instead, we will look for this fight to start round 2. Both Weidman and Silva have each seen 3 of their last 5 start round 2, therefore backing this fight to also start round 2 will be our lean.
