Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC on ESPN 52 takes place on Saturday at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas. This card features a lightweight fight between Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan as the Main Event. Here is my favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +575 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Beneil Dariush vs Arman Tsarukyan: Fight to go the Distance – No (-165)
Beneil Dariush comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-5-1 and 16-5-1 in the UFC. Dariush is averaging 3.79 significant strikes per minute and he has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 2.63 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. As for his grappling, Dariush has also been solid. He is averaging 1.91 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 0.9 submission attempts during the same time period.
Arman Tsarukyan comes into this fight with an MMA record of 20-3 and 7-2 in the UFC. Tsarukyan is averaging 3.82 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 1.91 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 3.43 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Tsarukyan is a heavy favorite in this fight, therefore backing his money line is too risky. Instead, we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Dariush has seen 18 of his 28 career fights end inside the distance, while Tsarukyan has seen 14 of his 23 career fights do the same. Because both fighters have a high finish rate, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
Jalin Turner vs Bobby Green: Fight to go the Distance – No (-165)
Jalin Turner is the clear favorite in this fight, so instead of backing either side to win, we will focus on this fight to end by finish. Bobby Green has seen 26 of his 46 career fights end by finish, which includes his last 4 fights in a row. Turner has seen 16 of his 20 career fights end inside the distance, which includes 5 of his last 7 fights. Because both guys have had a high finish rate recently, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
Clay Guida vs Joaquim Silva: Fight to go the Distance – No (-175)
Joaquim Silva is a significant favorite, but looking for this fight to end inside the distance looks to be the better option. Clay Guida has seen 36 of his 61 career fights end inside the distance, while Silva has seen 13 of his 16 career fights do the same, which includes his last 5 fights in a row. Because both guys have an above-average finish rate, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
Punahele Soriano vs Dustin Stoltzfus: Over 1.5 Rounds (-150)
Punahele Soriano is the heavy favorite in this fight, making his money line too risky. Instead, we will be targeting this fight to go over 1.5 rounds. Dustin Stoltzfus has seen 4 of his last 5 fights go over 1.5 rounds, while 3 of Soriano’s last 4 fights have done the same. Because they both have been able to last at least a couple of rounds in their recent fights, backing this fight to go over 1.5 rounds will be our play.
You can also read our UFC on ESPN 52 Best Bets
