Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 52 takes place on Saturday at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas. This card features a lightweight fight between Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan as the Main Event. Here are our best bets for this UFC card. Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
UFC on ESPN 52 Main Card Best Bets
Deiveson Figueiredo ML over Rob Font (+124)
Deiveson Figueiredo comes into this fight with an MMA record of 21-3-1. He is 10-3-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Brandon Moreno by KO/TKO back in January of this year. Figueiredo is averaging 3.09 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 3.50 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. Grappling is also where Figueiredo tends to excel, averaging 1.44 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.8 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 42% and a takedown defense of 58%.
Rob Font is actually the favorite in this fight, but considering he is only 1-3 in his last 4 UFC fights, he should be on upset alert, especially against Figueiredo, who is a former UFC title holder. Font does hold the edge in striking, but Figueiredo is the better grappler. Because Font has been inconsistent, backing the former champion to get back on track will be our best bet.
Sean Brady ML over Kelvin Gastelum (-118)
Sean Brady comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-1. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Belal Muhammad by KO/TKO back in October of 2022. Brady is averaging 4.17 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 3.86 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. His grappling is also very good, averaging 2.80 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50% and his takedown defense is 87%.
Brady is the small favorite in this fight and looks to be the right side. He has the edge in striking and grappling and have overall been much more consistent, suffering his first career loss in his most recent fight. Kelvin Gastelum is 2-5 in his last 7 UFC fights, therefore backing Brady to win will be our best bet.
UFC on ESPN 52 Preliminary Card Best Bet
Joe Solecki ML over Drakkar Klose (+110)
Joe Solecki comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-3. He is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Carl Deaton by submission back in February of this year. Solecki is averaging 2.24 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 1.53 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.51 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 50% and his takedown defense is 50%.
This fight is very even with Drakkar Klose being the small favorite. Solecki does not have the striking advantage, but he is a much better grappler and takes far less damage. Because Solecki can control this fight on the ground, backing him to pull the small upset will be our play.
You can also read our UFC on ESPN 52 4-fight parlay
